- Green hydrogen made from solar power in Africa is expected to cost US$6/kg to US$10/kg, while wind based production ranges from about US$5.5/kg to as much as US$26/kg depending on the site.
- Announced green hydrogen investment across 16 African countries totals about US$293 billion, yet most projects remain at very early or emerging stages and have not reached final investment decision.
- The study recommends universal electrification and industrialisation as Africa’s first priority, with a six stage roadmap running from 2026 to 2060.
A new study titled ‘The Prospect and Future of Green Hydrogen in the Continent of Africa,’ published in the journal Sustainability has examined the prospects, obstacles and likely future of green hydrogen in Africa. It concludes that the continent should concentrate first on electricity access and industrial growth rather than on exporting hydrogen produced from renewable energy.
Hydrogen produced from renewable energy is widely seen as a route to decarbonising hard to abate industries such as fertiliser, steel and heavy transport. Global hydrogen production passed 110 million tonnes in 2025, and the market is worth about US$174 billion. More than 99% of output still comes from fossil fuels. Demand is expected to rise nearly six times by 2050 as industry decarbonises. Even so, the study notes that blue hydrogen, which uses carbon capture and storage, is projected to supply about three quarters of the global market by 2050, with green hydrogen remaining a relatively small share.
Africa is often named as a future green hydrogen leader because of its solar and wind resources. The researchers reviewed announced projects and the continent’s renewable potential, and found that costs vary widely. Solar based hydrogen is expected to cost between US$6/kg and US$10/kg. The lowest figures are found mainly in desert regions, with the exceptions of Mauritania and Somalia, but these areas face serious water scarcity that could push costs up sharply. Countries with moderate solar irradiation face the highest solar costs, at around US$10/kg.
Wind based costs show even greater regional variation. The lowest levelised cost of about US$5.5/kg is found near the Arabian Sea, the Red Sea and the Horn of Africa, where wind capacity factors exceed 40%. In parts of Southern Africa and central Eastern Africa, where capacity factors are around 15%, costs range from US$8/kg to US$26/kg.
The investment pipeline is large but immature. Announced projects across 16 countries total about US$293 billion, including 11 projects at very early stages, four at emerging stages and one at the exploratory stage. Few have reached final investment decision. The gap is wider for large scale projects, which fall well short of the global rate of about 10%. The authors advise policymakers to focus on bankable benefits for African citizens and to be cautious about commitments to projects built only for export.
The study places these findings against the continent’s energy access challenge. More than 640 million Africans lack electricity, and access stands at a little over 40%, the lowest rate in the world. Per capita consumption in Sub Saharan Africa excluding South Africa is just 180 kWh, compared with about 13,000 kWh in the USA and 6,500 kWh in Europe. Renewables make up only 20% of Africa’s power mix, with 15% from hydropower and 5% from solar, wind and other sources. With Africa’s population projected to reach 2.5 billion by 2050, and 32 of the world’s 44 least developed nations located on the continent, the authors argue that universal electrification through renewables would deliver greater socioeconomic returns than hydrogen exports.
Drawing on technology readiness, costs, market opportunity, resource availability and infrastructure, the study proposes a six stage roadmap for 2026 to 2060. It is designed to supply green and low carbon hydrogen for use within Africa in the short term, with exports possible later, and the authors say it can be adapted to other developing and emerging economies. They stress that establishing green hydrogen as a mainstream commodity will take decades, not years. In the near term, Africa would be better served by taking a small number of viable pilot projects to final investment decision, while unrealistic production targets should be reset and paused in line with market realities.
The authors also note limitations. The cost analysis uses a static annual model rather than hourly simulation, so it does not fully capture daily and seasonal swings in solar and wind output. Long term uncertainty over hydrogen demand, trade, carbon pricing, electrolyser technology, financing and competing decarbonisation options means the roadmap should be reviewed periodically as markets and national priorities evolve.
Link to the full paper HERE
Author: Bryan Groenendaal
