The Department of Commerce has not answered Canary Media’s repeated requests for more details about the power plant deal, nor have SB Energy and SoftBank responded to questions.
About the only thing that won’t be a hurdle for the proposed plant to procure is the amount of gas needed for at least the first decade of its operation — although a big jump in demand could increase the price of natural gas for everyone in the region.
“I would say a plant that large would probably use about 1.2 billion cubic feet per day,” said Jimmy Stewart, president of the Ohio Gas Association. On an annual basis, that would be roughly one-fifth of Ohio’s production, he said.
That’s a lot, but Ohio already exports much of its natural gas, Stewart noted. The state’s gas plants can also source fuel from elsewhere. And while the administration’s announcement last month was a surprise, “there’s been plenty of people assuming there would be more natural gas generation facilities announced over the next couple of years,” he said.
Risky business
If the plant does ultimately come online, it would emit massive amounts of planet-warming greenhouse gases, along with other health-harming pollution.
Direct carbon dioxide emissions from the plant could range from 16.2 million metric tons per year to more than 20 million metric tons, according to separate estimates from the Rhodium Group and Energy Innovation, two policy and economic analysis organizations. That is roughly equivalent to the annual emissions of 4 million cars, based on federal data.
Fugitive methane emissions — the pollution that leaks during the production and transport of natural gas — could add about 26 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent per year, Eric Gimon, a senior fellow at Energy Innovation, said via email.
Nitrogen oxide emissions could total between 300 and 2,000 tons per year, Gimon estimated. Exposure can irritate the lungs, eyes, nose, and throat, and cause a variety of health problems.
In contrast, renewables and storage emit zero pollution during the operation phase of their life cycles. And they can get on the grid much more quickly, Wamsted noted.
A gas-fired megaplant also poses financial risks and could saddle Ohioans with higher electric bills in the years to come.
Although the current federal government and Ohio’s governor and legislature now favor natural gas, that could change. Renewed limits on greenhouse gas emissions could restrict the plant’s ability to operate, or require the plant to install costly equipment to capture and handle that waste.
Meanwhile, sky-high forecasts for electricity demand may not materialize if, for example, utilities’ load forecasts have been overstated and data center growth is less than projected. Other utility customers may foot the bill for overbuilding power plant infrastructure if hyperscalers require less energy than expected.
“If demand doesn’t materialize, you will be left with stranded assets intended to use expensive fuel,” Gimon said. Renewables and storage, on the contrary, don’t need matching fuel infrastructure. He added that it’s easier to repurpose those assets than a gas plant and pipelines; for example, solar panels and batteries could be relocated to another area where they are needed more.
The price volatility of natural gas is also a concern. Even before last month’s announcement, Ohio’s leadership was “betting heavily on natural gas for our future of generation,” said Andrew Thomas, executive-in-residence at Cleveland State University’s Energy Policy Center. “And you don’t want to see natural gas prices double if that is the bet we’re making.”
The cost of the plant’s construction, along with its required infrastructure, would factor into the price it charges for electricity for years to come. Given the Department of Commerce’s estimation of $33 billion for the investment, Wamsted said, “I can’t fathom how that would be cost-competitive” compared with other sources like renewables with batteries.
“A rush to gas is bad economic risk management,” Gimon said.
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