①Whether hydrogen energy can be traded, traced, and priced like electricity is the key watershed that will determine whether the trillion-dollar industry can truly transform and succeed; ②In the second half of the energy revolution, the competition is not about speed but systems. The breakthrough in hydrogen energy hinges not on catalysts in laboratories but on innovative mechanisms that break through barriers in energy, environment, and finance.
The STAR Market Daily reported on April 16 (by reporter Li Yu) that the National Energy Administration explicitly proposed at a recent meeting on advancing regional pilot projects for hydrogen energy to “vigorously promote mechanism innovations such as hydrogen trading and green certification,” drawing significant industry attention.
This was not a routine industrial statement but a clear signal of importance: hydrogen energy is transitioning from the “engineering-driven” phase into a period focused on institutional challenges. The industry’s focus is shifting from “building equipment and creating demonstration projects” to “establishing rules and shaping markets”; the core proposition is evolving from “technical feasibility” to value realization in transaction scenarios.
Whether hydrogen energy can be traded, traced, and priced like electricity is the key watershed that will determine whether the trillion-dollar industry can truly transform and succeed.
Over the past five years, hydrogen energy has successfully followed the path of “infrastructure first”: the number of hydrogen refueling stations leads globally, production and sales of fuel cell vehicles have continued to grow rapidly, and large-scale green hydrogen projects have been implemented in Inner Mongolia, Guangdong, and other regions. However, beneath the scale expansion, structural contradictions have become prominent: hydrogen production costs remain high, terminal hydrogen prices are still above 40 yuan per kilogram, significantly distant from the 2030 target of 25 yuan per kilogram. The more critical bottleneck lies in the inability to effectively transfer the green attributes of green hydrogen, the inability to monetize zero-carbon premiums, and the difficulty in closing the investment return logic loop.
The industry’s pain points have long been clear: it is not the lack of technology but the absence of markets, rules, and innovative mechanisms to activate the market. The real turning point for hydrogen energy lies in a profound paradigm shift—from “adapting technology to scenarios” to “defining value through institutional frameworks in transaction scenarios.”
The National Energy Administration’s parallel mention of “hydrogen trading” and “green certification” carries profound significance: green hydrogen will be endowed with environmental rights akin to those of green electricity. Steel mills purchasing green hydrogen are not just procuring energy but also obtaining certifiable, tradable, and deductible carbon emission reduction credentials.
Once the mechanism is established, hydrogen energy will no longer be a single energy carrier but a pivotal asset linking new power systems, deep industrial decarbonization, and national carbon markets.
A historical review reveals that when green certificates were first launched in 2017, they faced a cold reception and low prices until 2023, when they became strongly tied to consumption responsibility weights, finally activating the market. Internationally, the EU established mandatory renewable hydrogen blending and full lifecycle carbon accounting through the Renewable Energy Directive II (RED II); Japan built a green hydrogen carbon footprint system through JHFC certification. If China builds an internationally recognized green hydrogen certification and standard system, it could convert its regional pilot advantages into global hydrogen trade rule-setting influence.
The ultimate value of hydrogen energy does not lie in how advanced its storage and transportation technologies are but in whether it can become a “carbon credit medium” within the new energy system. When wind and solar hydrogen produced in Inner Mongolia can be converted into carbon quotas for steel mills in Jiangsu, and when hydrogen-powered buses in Guangdong can generate tradable green assets—only then can the trillion-dollar market truly stand firm. At that point, we will truly possess a “future industry.”
The second half of the energy revolution is not about speed, but institutional innovation. The key to breaking through in hydrogen energy does not lie in laboratory catalysts, but in innovative mechanisms that break down barriers between energy, environment, and finance.
Xiao K Quick Review: Observing changes from an innovative perspective—faster, newer, sharper.
Xiao K Quick Review is an in-depth commentary column under Cailian Press and ‘STAR Market Daily.’ Centered on science and technology innovation, it adopts a financial perspective with news timeliness as its premise. It focuses on core areas such as China’s technological innovation, capital market reform, and industrial economic upgrading, providing in-depth analysis and rational commentary on hot events, policy implementation, industrial transformation, and global competition and cooperation.
