Spain’s forecast electrolyser capacity for 2030 has almost halved due to project withdrawals, delayed investment decisions, and development barriers, according to the Spanish Hydrogen Association (AeH2).
The organisation’s new Census of Projects Analysis found that 7GW of capacity covered by its survey is expected to be online by 2030, down from last year’s forecast of 13.3GW.
The 13.3GW figure itself represented a slight decline from 2024’s 13.6GW.
While AeH2 said the trend reflects a developing sector undergoing a “natural selection process,” it brings projections 5GW below Spain’s target of 12GW of operational capacity by 2030.
The country’s hydrogen sector, it suggests, is moving towards a smaller, more mature development pipeline. However, investment decisions and project commissioning are not keeping pace with national goals.
It said that only 1.3GW of an expected 6GW of projects are likely to reach final investment decision before year-end. This includes 400MW that have already done so.
The report also said producers require offtake contracts of at least 10 years to support production and associated infrastructure, while offtakers tend to limit commitments to a maximum of three years.
It comes as politics in Spain, and policy across Europe more broadly, drive uncertainty around the country’s green hydrogen sector.
A European Commission draft, leaked in September, showed the executive considering scrapping bloc-wide green hydrogen mandates after 2030.
Separately, a pre-dating leak from Germany’s Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs (BMWE) also questioned the current Renewable Energy Directive III (RED III) framework.
Spain currently awaits a snap general election on 29 November, raising questions around the future of its so-far supportive green hydrogen schemes.
While current Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez and his Socialist Workers’ Party have overseen broad support of the country’s green hydrogen sector, their main rivals in the polls, Spain’s conservative People’s Party, could bring a significant change in direction.
Spain is strongly positioned to become a leading green molecule supplier with abundant wind and solar capacities underpinning green hydrogen production. The BarMar cross-border, subsea hydrogen pipeline project could also facilitate export to hydrogen consumers across mainland Europe.
