Moeve estimates that green molecules can cut European energy dependence in half by 2040 – hydrogen, biofuels, biomethane
A report prepared with PwC places renewable hydrogen, advanced biofuels, and biomethane as a vector to replace up to 50% of fossil fuels by 2050
Green molecules will be decisive for Europe’s energy security, industrial competitiveness, and the decarbonization of hard-to-electrify sectors, according to the reportWhy does Europe need green molecules?, prepared by Moeve in collaboration with PwC and presented in Brussels to institutional officials, business leaders, and other sector stakeholders. The document argues that these energy vectors —including renewable hydrogen and its derivatives, such as ammonia or methanol, second-generation biofuels, and biomethane— could reduce the continent’s energy dependency by up to 50% by 2040, while contributing to the climate neutrality goals set out in the Green Deal, the Fit for 55 package, and the REPowerEU plan.
The analysis, based on public sources and consulting reports, quantifies a reduction in European energy dependence from 57% recorded in 2024 to 28% by 2040, in the scenario of maximum deployment of green molecules produced in European territory. By 2050, these fuels could replace between 30% and 50% of the current fossil fuel demand and account for approximately one third of the energy mix of the European Union, according to the projections included in the report.
The CEO of Moeve, Maarten Wetselaar, stated that “in a global context of rising geopolitical tensions and energy supply chains, Europe’s strategic imperative is clear: to ensure energy autonomy.” Wetselaar adds that “green molecules produced in Europe offer a firm roadmap towards a resilient, competitive, and energy-independent Europe, while positioning the continent as a global leader in the fight against climate change. With the right support, European champions can exponentially develop these clean energy solutions, but the time to act is now.”
The report emphasizes that green molecules are particularly relevant for carbon-intensive sectors that are difficult to electrify, such as heavy industry, chemicals, or long-distance transportation, which currently represent between 20% and 25% of European primary energy demand. Applied to the decarbonization of these activities, green molecules could cut Europe’s CO₂ emissions by up to 22% by 2050. The industry alone accounts for more than 20% of the continent’s greenhouse gas emissions and maintains a high dependence on fossil fuels, complicating its direct electrification.
On the economic front, the document addresses the so-called green premium, the extra cost currently associated with these technologies compared to their fossil counterparts. The analysis concludes that the impact is diluted along the value chain and that the additional cost that reaches the end consumer is minimal. For example, shipping a pair of 100 euro sneakers from Asia to Europe using renewable fuels would add only about 50 cents to the final price. In the aviation sector, the ticket price increase would be between 1% and 5%, while in maritime transport the retail price increase would be between 1% and 4%.
The report forecasts that the cost difference between fossil fuels and green molecules will decrease as the price of CO₂ emissions increases, renewable energy prices fall, and production processes from biomass and hydrogen become more efficient. Second-generation biofuels, already used in road transport (HVO), marine, and aviation (SAF), would reach cost parity with fossil fuels over the 2030s, while synthetic fuels based on green hydrogen would do so in the 2040s.
To unlock the full potential of these technologies, the study identifies four lines of coordinated action between public administrations and industry: stable regulatory frameworks that create a market and offer clear demand signals; economic support mechanisms that cover the cost gap in the initial phases through subsidies, tax incentives, and carbon prices; scaling infrastructures and innovation in production, transport, and storage; and public-private alliances that enable investment mobilization and achieve industrial scale.
The deployment of green molecules would also generate a ripple effect on the European economy, with an estimated creation of 1.7 million jobs and an increase in EU and UK GDP of up to 145 billion euros by 2040. In this scenario, Spain would lead with 181,000 new jobs and an impact of 15.6 billion euros on its GDP. The report contrasts these figures with the cost of inaction: ignoring climate change could result in losses exceeding 6 trillion euros in Europe over the next 50 years, while achieving climate goals would generate economic benefits of up to 730 billion euros.
The study concludes that the current decade is decisive for laying the foundations of large-scale deployment after 2030. Investments in infrastructure, technology, and supply chains will determine Europe’s capacity to scale the production and consumption of green molecules from that date and consolidate its competitive position in the long term.
READ the latest news shaping the hydrogen market at Hydrogen Central
Moeve estimates that green molecules can cut European energy dependence in half by 2040 – hydrogen, biofuels, biomethane, source
