Brazil’s oil and gas watchdog ANP has brought forward the regulation of the national Low-Carbon Hydrogen Certification System, which will now be part of the authority’s 2025–2026 Regulatory Agenda.
The agency’s board approved on October 29 the inclusion of the action, initially planned in the proposed 2027–2028 Regulatory Agenda, which is currently under prior consultation. According to the ANP, the anticipation is due to the importance of the topic for investors and for the implementation of public policies to encourage fuel production.
The future regulation will establish the certification rules, including the methodology to verify whether the hydrogen falls within the parameters defined by the legislation. The work is expected to begin in November and be completed in October 2027. The draft will be prepared between June and July, with a public consultation in July and August and a public hearing in August.
The board also approved the update of the manual for requesting authorizations for low-carbon-emission hydrogen.
The measures are part of ANP’s process to assume the responsibilities assigned by Law 14.948/2024 and Decree 13.096/2026, published in August. That month, the agency created a special project with three priorities: the procedures for prior qualification and co-qualification in Rehidro, the sector’s special incentive regime; the regulation of certification; and the updating of the manual.
In the case of Rehidro, the requests will be analyzed by ANP’s technical departments and board of directors and then forwarded to the Ministry of Mines and Energy (MME), which is responsible for issuing the preliminary qualification ordinances.
The proposed 2027–2028 Regulatory Agenda includes five other actions on hydrogen, among them rules for authorization of production and transportation, operational safety, and delivery of technical data.
Regulatory pending issue
Certification had been identified by the market as one of the main bottlenecks in the sector. In a recent interview with BNamericas, Camila Ramos, CEO of the consultancy CELA, stated that as long as the design of the system is not defined, investors will have difficulty safely pricing the projects. Under the planned model, the National Institute of Metrology, Quality and Technology (Inmetro) will act as the accreditor and the Electric Energy Trading Chamber (CCEE) will be responsible for the registrations.
CELA’s survey maps 123 green hydrogen initiatives in Brazil, concentrated in the Northeast. Of the 66 that disclosed values, investments total 456.5 billion reais (US$85.2 billion), and the 37 that reported capacity amount to around 90GW.
The members of the Brazilian Green Hydrogen Industry Association (ABIHV) have more than 115 billion reais in projects with a final investment decision (FID) expected by 2030, totaling 10.4GW of electrolysis.
Among the projects with an announced schedule are the first 20MW stage of Fraternité, by Qair, in 2028, and H2 Cumbuco, by FRV, by 2030. The country’s largest project, Fortescue’s green hydrogen plant in the Pecém Complex in Ceará, envisages investment of 17.5 billion reais, capacity of up to 2.1GW and start of operations in August 2028.
Contracts, network and costs
According to ABIHV’s CEO, Fernanda Delgado, the projects still depend on purchase contracts, financing, licensing, and infrastructure. The reprioritization of European investments toward energy security and military capacity may prolong negotiations, especially for projects aimed at exports.
The South America and Oceania lot of the second round of the H2Global auction in Europe, with a minimum budget of €587 million, is in the evaluation and contracting phase. In the program’s first contracting of renewable ammonia, no Brazilian project was selected.
Access to the transmission grid is also considered decisive. The National Policy for Access to the Transmission System (PNAST) established access seasons, and the National Electric System Operator (ONS) has already closed the first one. Delgado warns, however, of a possible dispute with data centers in locations with limited capacity.
Ramos points out that generation cuts (curtailment) make long-term firm energy more expensive – precisely the contract profile that the projects need.
The Bird & Bird firm also cites still underdeveloped production, storage, and transportation infrastructure and costs above those of fossil alternatives, even with the tax credits from the Low-Carbon Hydrogen Development Program (PHBC), which will total 18.3 billion reais between 2028 and 2032.
(The original version of this content was written in English)
