Thyssenkrupp Steel Europe now expects to fire up its direct-reduction plant in Duisburg in 2029 rather than 2027, a two-year slip that moves the centrepiece of its decarbonisation programme further out. A company spokesperson confirmed the delay, pointing chiefly to the engineering phase. The European Commission, for its part, cited construction hold-ups.
The project carries a price tag of roughly EUR 3 billion, with the state chipping in up to EUR 2 billion in subsidies. Its later start pushes back the single most important milestone in Thyssenkrupp’s push to make steel with a smaller carbon footprint.
Revised subsidy terms allow a slower hydrogen ramp-up
For the broader tkH2Steel decarbonisation effort, Thyssenkrupp Steel has secured a legally binding amended subsidy notice. Under the revised conditions, the company can raise the share of hydrogen in the process more gradually. Thyssenkrupp attributed the change to the slower-than-expected build-out of the hydrogen market and to hydrogen costs running above original assumptions. According to the company, the European Commission confirmed that the amendments are compatible with EU state-aid rules. A fresh hydrogen tender is now in preparation.
How that tender is structured will matter a great deal. The whole investment case hinges on whether construction progress and hydrogen supply can be brought into step: a finished plant counts for little if the fuel it needs is unavailable or too expensive, and a steady hydrogen flow is worthless without a facility ready to use it. Progress on both fronts together would give investors a firmer basis for judging the project.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Thyssenkrupp?
What would make the longer timetable work — and what would break it
The constructive reading is that the extra time is put to use. If the engineering phase settles into a dependable construction sequence and hydrogen procurement matches the phased ramp-up, the delay becomes a revised execution horizon rather than a warning sign. The looser subsidy terms, which permit a step-by-step increase in the hydrogen share, arguably support that path by giving the company room to manoeuvre in a market that is developing more slowly than hoped.
The less comfortable scenario starts with further technical trouble. Another extension of the engineering phase, or more construction slippage, would put even the 2029 date under pressure and push the conversion further into the future. Hydrogen procurement is a separate risk in its own right: should high costs and the delayed market build-out persist, even a new tender might struggle to deliver the planned ramp-up, leaving the flexible subsidy framework as little more than a way of coping with difficult conditions. A combination of the two — construction setbacks plus poor procurement terms — would force investors to scale back expectations for both pace and economic viability.
Analysts trimmed targets before the delay surfaced
Sentiment around the stock has been soft. Analysts cut their price targets on 29 October to a range of EUR 15 to 17, though the houses involved kept their buy recommendations in place. Those reductions came ahead of the Duisburg delay that emerged yesterday. The shares closed Friday at EUR 11.86, down 12% over the past 30 days — a move for which no direct link to the later plant start has been established.
Thyssenkrupp at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
Part of the recent price action also reflects the spin-off of tk accelis, completed roughly two weeks ago. Thyssenkrupp shareholders received one share in the carved-out business for every 20 Thyssenkrupp shares held. The arithmetical discount around the new entity’s market debut was largely explained by the separation itself and did not represent a corresponding loss of value for the combined package.
8 December 2026 marked as the next checkpoint
The next hard date for investors is 8 December 2026, when Thyssenkrupp plans to publish its 2025/2026 annual report alongside its customary annual press conference and a session with analysts and investors. Those events should offer room to gauge management’s account of project progress and the hydrogen tender. Execution remains the yardstick: a longer horizon is easier to stomach if the coming steps look solid, and harder to defend if the technical rollout stalls again while procurement conditions deteriorate.
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