Beijing, China’s capital, has set bold numerical targets for the spread of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. It aims to deploy more than 12,000 by 2030 and build at least 40 new hydrogen refueling stations. China, which swept the global market in electric vehicles (EVs), is now seeking to seize the initiative in hydrogen mobility as well through the power of mass-production scale.
According to the Hong Kong newspaper South China Morning Post (SCMP), Beijing recently published a “five-year plan for the hydrogen industry.” A notable feature is that, in line with the regional demonstration program for the hydrogen industry promoted by China’s central government, it positions hydrogen as a strategic means of transporting and storing energy.
The plan rests on three main pillars. First, expanding the introduction of fuel cell vehicles, centered on the commercial vehicle segment such as long-distance freight, urban logistics and passenger transport. Second, supporting the supply chains of major manufacturers and cutting the cost of vehicle bodies and key components by 30% or more. Third, switching the chemical feedstocks used in the refining processes of petrochemical plants to hydrogen-derived feedstocks and replacing fossil-fuel-derived hydrogen with “green hydrogen” produced from renewable energy.
Through these measures, Beijing expects to reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by more than 300,000 tons a year. The design advances vehicle adoption and industrial structural transformation at the same time, and it stands out for going beyond mere subsidy-driven demand stimulation.
Beijing is not the only local government on the move. Guangzhou has decided to deploy more than 16,000 hydrogen fuel cell vehicles and add 100 hydrogen stations. Shanghai, too, will deepen cooperation with Jilin Province and the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, which are rich in wind and solar resources, expanding green hydrogen production while advancing vehicle adoption and infrastructure development in parallel in the Yangtze River Delta region.
China’s central government positions hydrogen as a “future industry” and in August designated five major economic zones to pilot the expanded use of hydrogen across multiple industrial sectors. The phrasing of advancing the shift from fossil fuels to non-fossil energy “safely and in an orderly manner” hints at caution over the impact on power grids and the industrial base.
The current state of China’s hydrogen market already has a foundation centered on commercial vehicles. As of the end of last year, about 32,000 fuel cell vehicles were on the road in the country. China accounts for more than 50% of the world’s hydrogen production capacity, and the depth of its supply side far outstrips other countries.
| City/Region | Fuel cell vehicle deployment target | Hydrogen stations |
|---|---|---|
| Beijing | 12,000+ (by 2030) | 40+ new stations |
| Guangzhou | 16,000+ | 100 additional |
| Shanghai | 2,124 | 21 new stations |
Note: Beijing’s target is for 2030. The target timeframes for Guangzhou and Shanghai depend on each plan.
This move represents pressure that cannot be ignored for Hyundai Motor Company, which holds roughly 70% of the global share in the hydrogen vehicle segment. According to market research firm SNE Research, Hyundai Motor Company held about a 70% share of global hydrogen vehicle sales in the first half of 2026, maintaining the top position.
But the precedent of the Chinese government rapidly expanding the market by leveraging preferential measures for its own manufacturers has been repeated in EVs. The global EV market share of Chinese brands, which was in the 20% range a decade ago, now reaches the 60% range, and Hyundai Motor Company and Kia, which were among the world’s top five in 2020, have fallen to the bottom of the top 10. The possibility that the same script will be replayed in hydrogen vehicles is not small.
Conditions on the South Korean side are also a headwind. The proposed 2027 budget for subsidies for hydrogen electric vehicles compiled by the South Korean government fell 23%, from ₩576.2 billion (approximately $429.7 million) to ₩445.7 billion (approximately $332.4 million). Even the budget already secured is said to be hampering actual vehicle adoption due to shortages of local funding.
Lee Ho-geun, a professor in the Department of Future Automotive Engineering at Daeduk University, told South Korean media that China’s expansion of hydrogen vehicle adoption is “a sign that it has secured a certain level of its own hydrogen vehicle production technology,” while pointing out that environmentally friendly vehicles are expensive and government subsidies are indispensable. He expressed the view that “China, having secured the technology, may accelerate market expansion against a backdrop of policy support.” Regarding South Korea, he said it is necessary to complete an ecosystem encompassing everything from charging infrastructure to the production, storage, transport and sale of hydrogen, building on the technological capabilities Hyundai Motor Company possesses, and that demonstrating a functioning hydrogen ecosystem domestically will be “the core of securing competitiveness in the global market going forward.”
Beijing’s plan is strongly colored by industrial policy aimed at reducing costs through mass-production effects, in that the government effectively guarantees demand on the scale of 10,000 vehicles. The target of cutting component prices by 30% or more reflects an awareness of the need to achieve price competitiveness that does not depend on subsidies.
Unlike EVs, hydrogen’s spread is constrained by the development of refueling infrastructure. The station plans of 40 in Beijing and 100 in Guangzhou are designed to avoid the chicken-and-egg problem of “stations not increasing because vehicles don’t sell” by advancing them simultaneously with vehicle adoption.
Meanwhile, at the hydrogen production stage, fossil-fuel-derived hydrogen remains dominant, and the shift to green hydrogen depends on power costs and the location of renewable energy. Beijing’s decision to go as far as feedstock conversion in the petrochemical sector likely reflects a judgment that hydrogen demand would be limited if confined to the transportation sector.
For Japanese companies, there is room to enter the Chinese supply chain in fuel cell materials and components, while on the other hand they will face the price offensive of Chinese players in the battle for leadership in completed vehicles and systems. Negotiations over the formulation of international standards and safety criteria for hydrogen will also proceed in the future on the premise of China’s presence.
Even within China, target figures vary widely from one local government to another, and the pace of infrastructure development and the reduction of hydrogen prices are prone to regional disparities. In gauging the effectiveness of the five-year plan, trends in vehicle registrations and station utilization rates will be the touchstone.
