India’s abundant renewable resources and large domestic hydrogen market position it as a strong contender in the global green hydrogen race. However, the nation needs coordinated infrastructure development, certification alignment, and commercial readiness at a pace commensurate with global market dynamics to capitalize on export opportunities, according to a new export competitiveness assessment by FICCI and EY.
India scores 24 out of 35 in a multi-dimensional benchmark comparing leading green hydrogen economies, placing it behind China and Saudi Arabia, which jointly lead the rankings with 29 points, and the UAE, which scores 26. The assessment evaluates countries across renewable energy resource quality and cost, hydrogen production costs, policy support and incentive intensity, export infrastructure, domestic demand, technology/manufacturing capabilities and geopolitical market access.
The report says India’s strongest competitive advantages lie in its high-quality renewable energy resource base, highly competitive solar tariffs and a structurally large industrial hydrogen demand base. However, these advantages are offset by weaker export infrastructure, lower policy incentive intensity and higher delivered hydrogen costs than leading producer nations.
“The global transition to Green Hydrogen as a traded clean energy commodity is, at its core, an infrastructure story,” the report states. “The competitiveness of a producing nation cannot be determined by Levelized Cost of Hydrogen (LCOH) figures alone; what ultimately shapes the bankability of export ambitions is whether hydrogen or its derivatives can be reliably converted, stored, loaded, shipped and discharged at scale, at acceptable cost and in full conformity with importing countries’ certification requirements.”
The report argues that the opportunity to establish an early leadership position in Asian and European markets is time-bound rather than guaranteed. Strategic decisions and capital deployment over 2026–2027 will be critical in determining whether India emerges as a leading green hydrogen exporter by 2032 or assumes a more delayed, secondary role by 2040.
India’s green hydrogen export strategy is concentrated on structurally high-demand, policy-supported import markets, primarily the European Union, Japan, South Korea and selected Indo-Pacific economies, where decarbonization mandates and import dependency are expected to drive material hydrogen-equivalent demand through 2030. In parallel, emerging trade corridors such as the India–Middle East–Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) are expected to enhance long-term export competitiveness by reducing logistics costs and improving route efficiency to Europe.
Across these priority destinations, the report estimates India’s addressable export opportunity at approximately 1.2–3.1 MTPA by 2030, contingent on cost competitiveness, certification alignment (notably EU RFNBO compliance) and development of scalable carrier infrastructure, including Green Ammonia, Liquid Hydrogen and liquid organic hydrogen carrier (LOHC) pathways.
The report notes that India has already established a robust policy framework with Initiatives such as the National Green Hydrogen Mission (NGHM), the SIGHT programme, the Green Hydrogen Certification framework (GHCI), and designated hydrogen hubs at Deendayal, Paradip and Tuticorin, in efforts aimed at creating a globally competitive export ecosystem.
The NGHM targets 5 MMTPA of green hydrogen-equivalent production by 2030, a significant share of which is expected to be exported as green hydrogen derivatives such as green ammonia, sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), and e-methanol. However, commercial-scale exports are projected to begin only between 2027 and 2029.
“The infrastructure gap between production ambition and export reality is not a minor operational detail, it is the central bottleneck that Indian policymakers, port authorities and private developers should now address with urgency,” says the report.
The report adds that at this stage, the priority is no longer policy articulation but disciplined execution: developing export infrastructure, securing Mutual Recognition Agreements (MRAs), enabling project financing, and closing bankable long-term offtake contracts.
“India has designed the blueprint for a “Hydrogen Bridge” connecting its renewable energy base with the decarbonization needs of advanced economies. The imperative now is to operationalize this vision through coordinated infrastructure development, certification alignment and commercial readiness at a pace commensurate with global market dynamics,” states the report.
