The market has handed ITM Power a peculiar contradiction. On one hand, short sellers have abandoned the stock in droves, while on the other, the share price has dropped by almost 42% from its late-May peak. The disconnect is rooted in a critical regulatory breakthrough in Germany that could transform the economics of the company’s pipeline — but investors are demanding proof before they pile back in.
Brussels clears the way for combined industrial subsidies
On 10 June 2026, the European Commission gave Germany the green light to let energy-intensive companies stack two major subsidy schemes: a temporary industrial electricity price cap alongside a power price compensation programme. Previously this was forbidden, creating a major hurdle for investments in low-carbon production methods. Economy Minister Katharina Reiche puts the additional relief at roughly one billion euros.
ITM Power stands to benefit directly. The company is the technology partner for the “Netzbrücke” projects — a 30 MW green hydrogen plant in Rüstringen and a planned 680 MW electrolysis facility. Both are awaiting final investment decisions in 2026 and 2028 respectively. The EU’s blessing improves the business case for industrial customers, potentially unlocking the 710 MW of project reservations ITM holds in Germany. The clock is ticking: the company must convert those reservations into binding contracts by the end of its 2026 financial year.
Short sellers turn tail
The shift in regulatory landscape may help explain why bearish bets on ITM have collapsed. Short positions dropped by 73% at the end of May, falling to around 9,100 shares from nearly 34,000. The days-to-cover ratio now sits at just 0.1, meaning any remaining short sellers could close their positions almost instantly without moving the market. That is a stark reversal for a stock that had been considered a high-risk hydrogen bet just months earlier.
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Morgan Stanley has also shifted its stance. In late April the bank upgraded ITM from “Equal Weight” to “Overweight” and lifted its price target, signalling growing confidence in the upside.
The technical picture tells a volatile tale
Despite the positive signals, the share price has been under pressure. At 1.50 euros, the stock is now trading nearly 42% below its 52-week high of 2.58 euros, which was set on 29 May. Over the past seven days it has lost just over 10%, and the 30-day decline is close to 20%. The relative strength index (RSI) stands at 40.2 — neither oversold nor overbought.
Yet the longer-term trend remains intact. The stock is trading around 50% above its 200-day moving average of 1.00 euro, though roughly 8% below the 50-day line. Year to date, ITM has gained more than 107%, while over twelve months the advance is about 75%.
Partnerships and sector momentum
Beyond Germany, ITM is pushing ahead in the UK. On 3 June it signed a strategic partnership with developer Protium to build green hydrogen plants, starting with the 15 MW Cromarty project in Scotland. The British government is also reviewing a capital grant of 46.5 million pounds for that initiative.
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Meanwhile, the wider hydrogen sector is showing signs of life. Ceres Power completed a 103 million pound capital raise on 10 June, issuing 18 million new shares at 570 pence each. H-Power reported its first commercial hydrogen sale from cracked ammonia in the UK, delivering 5,000 kg of 99.97% pure fuel-cell-grade hydrogen to Protium. On the other side of the Atlantic, Plug Power is targeting EBITDA-positive status by end-2026 and full profitability by 2028.
The immediate test
For ITM Power, the next few weeks will determine whether the 1.50 euro level can act as a floor. The company’s underlying fundamentals are solid — it recently reported an order book of 152 million pounds and lifted full-year revenue guidance to between 40 and 43 million pounds. The question is whether the EU’s subsidy green light and the retreat of the short sellers can reignite the buying pressure that drove the stock to its highs. The market is waiting for the first final investment decision to turn regulatory hope into hard cash.
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ITM Power Stock: New Analysis – 12 June
Fresh ITM Power information released. What’s the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.
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