Updated projections reveal why hydrogen steelmaking lags behind more pragmatic low-carbon routes.
Recent adjustments to my projections for global steel demand through 2100, reflecting a significant slowdown in Chinese infrastructure and cement consumption, have sharpened my economic focus on competing new steelmaking technologies. With lower growth trajectories for steel firmly established, every ton produced in the coming decades will increasingly face stringent scrutiny around cost, carbon intensity, and technological feasibility.
Four + one emerging steelmaking routes are central to this analysis: molten oxide electrolysis (MOE), electrified biomethane-based direct reduced iron (DRI) coupled with carbon capture and storage (CCS), hydrogen-based DRI, and flash ironmaking with either natural gas coupled with CCS or hydrogen. A sober economic assessment, grounded firmly in realistic assumptions about electricity costs, fuel pricing, and carbon policies, offers clear insights into their respective prospects.
