By Gerard Kreeft
Is the current Middle East crisis providing a golden opportunity for promoting large liquified hydrogen (H2)carriers—a new disruptive technology— which will transport H2, a substitute fuel for Qatar’s lost LNG production?
The Japanese, who are the masters-of-long-term-energy-planning and who invented the Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) carrier business some 50 years ago, could again surprise us by duplicating their plan: not with more LNG carriers but by building a fleet of some 400 large liquified H2 carriers, which will dot the international landscape from 2030+ onward.
What makes the situation more likely is the curtailment that the current energy crisis has imposed on the LNG market; which may put the fast-tracking of the production of green hydrogen on the front burnr. To date some 40 major energy infrastructure projects have been damaged. Restoring Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG infrastructure could take five years.
Currently estimated costing for green hydrogen for 2030 is $1.60/kg and the goal by 2050 is to reduce this to $1.10/kg. LNG costs $1.10/kg in Japan which could make green hydrogen very competitive with LNG.
Japan’s government states that the country’s energy self-sufficiency rate is 15.3%, the lowest of the among the G7 countries. Increasing its share of carbon free power sources is essential to maintaining Japan’s competitiveness as an industrial economy among the G7. The government is spending $100Billion on hydrogen investments, up to 2038. Annual hydrogen usage will increase to 12Million tons by 2040 in order to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050.
The first steps have already been taken. This is a story of how an energy crisis can prove to be disruptive technology game-changer.
The Present Situation
Kawasaki Heavy Industries has signed a contract with Japan Suiso Energy (JSE) to build the world’s largest liquified hydrogen carrier, a vessel intended to support the future commercial transport of hydrogen.
The ship will have a capacity of about 40,000 cubic metres (m3) and will be built at Kawasaki’s Sakaide Works in Kagawa Prefecture, western Japan. JSE is acting as the operator for the New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization’s (NEDO) Green Innovation Fund project.
In 2021, the company built the world’s first liquified hydrogen carrier, the 1,250m3 Suiso Frontier. In 2022, the vessel took part in a pilot demonstration between Japan and Australia, which successfully showed that liquified hydrogen could be safely loaded, transported and unloaded.
The project aims to demonstrate ship-to-base loading and unloading of liquefied hydrogen and to carry out ocean-going trials by 2031.
Kawasaki anticipates that expected hydrogen (H2) carrier fleet is projected to grow significantly to meet global decarbonization targets, with estimates indicating a need for over 400 specialized vessels by 2050 to transport hydrogen. The market is rapidly moving from pilot projects to commercial-scale designs, with major initiatives aimed at establishing trade routes between Asia, Europe, and Australia.
Costing
A major hurdle is the costing. Currently estimated costing for 2030 is $1.60/kg and the goal by 2050 is to reduce this to $1.10/kg. Hyphen Hydrogen (Namibia) estimates that their green hydrogen in 2030 will cost $1.50/kg.
To reduce costs the government has enacted a Hydrogen Society Promotion Act, which includes two subsidy schemes: a Contract to bridge the price gap between low-carbon hydrogen and conventional fuels; and the creation of infrastructure hubs to make nationwide hydrogen distribution more efficient.
Various industrial projects have been initiated to promote hydrogen development; two examples:
Chiyoda Corporation‘s work with New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization (NEDO), which has established a pioneering hydrogen supply chain, using methyl cyclohexane (MCH) as a hydrogen carrier. In 2020, over 100 tons of hydrogen was transported from Brunei Darussalam to Japan, demonstrating the feasibility of large-scale hydrogen transport.
The Green Hydrogen Project, a partnership between Germany’s Siemens Energy and Japan’s Toray Industries, supported by NEDO. The venture aims to develop green hydrogen production technology using Polymer Electrolyte Membrane (PEM) water electrolysis.
Sourcing H2
In 2022, the Hydrogen Energy Supply Chain (HESC) Project achieved a world first by demonstrating that clean liquid hydrogen can be extracted from Latrobe Valley coal in Australia and shipped to Kobe in Japan. The project aimed to produce up to 30,000 tonnes of hydrogen annually. The developers behind the Hydrogen Energy Supply Chain (HESC) have altered plans, deciding to source hydrogen domestically in Japan rather than Australia due to ongoing procedural delays with Australian authorities.
Six leading African countries, Egypt, Kenya, Mauritania, Morocco, Namibia and South Africa, have formed the Africa Green Hydrogen Alliance (AGHA) to intensify collaboration and supercharge development of green hydrogen projects on the African continent. They were recently joined by Algeria, Angola, Djibouti, Ethiopia and Nigeria. Tunisia is also considering membership of AGHA.
The Alliance aims to intensify collaboration and supercharge development of green hydrogen projects to make the African continent a frontrunner in the race to develop green hydrogen. It is a platform for government collaboration with the private sector, development finance institutions and civil society.
According to AGHA/McKinsey Africa’s Green Hydrogen Potential report of 2022
“By 2050, green hydrogen could increase the GDP of six African countries by $126Billion, the equivalent of 12% of these countries’ current GDP, and create up to 4 million jobs”.
The report continues …”the continent’s abundant wind and solar potential and its proximity to key demand centres put it in a strong position to export green hydrogen and its derivatives to international markets, including Europe and Asia”.
The report identifies European Union, Japan, and South Korea as priority export markets – reflecting existing infrastructure and high level of demand from existing manufacturing centres not able to fulfill all their clean hydrogen needs.
To realize these ambitions substantial investments of $450-$900Billion are needed between now and 2050.
Japan’s Rainmaker Role
Between 2013-2023 Japanese public institutions–Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC), Japan Organization for Metals and Energy Security (JOGMEC), Nippon Export and Investment Insurance (NEXI), Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), and Development Bank of Japan (DBJ)– provided a $93Billion in support for overseas oil and gas projects between 2013 and 2023 of which 45% of finance concentrated on upstream investments.
Note: Mozambique was the top recipient country–$8.2Billion—for the financing of the Rovuma Area 1 LNG project.
Source: Solutions for Our Climate (SFOC), Oil Change International (OCI), and Japan Centre for a Sustainable Environment and Society (JACSES)
Historically Japan’s ties with Africa are connected with TICAD(Tokyo International Conference of African Development) launched in 1993 by the Government of Japan, to promote Africa’s development, peace and security, through the strengthening of relations in multilateral cooperation and partnership.
Final Comments
In March 2026 a quadripartite Japanese consortium was formed to establish a Japan-New Zealand hydrogen corridor. The consortium will study the commercialization of green hydrogen production in New Zealand and export operations to Japan.
If Japan is to realize its H2 objectives the country should also look to Africa with its huge hydrogen options. Certainly pricewise it looks as though the Japanese and the Namibians can in the near future strike a deal.
The Japanese goal is that by 2030 green hydrogen should cost $1.60/kg and the goal by 2050 is to reduce this to $1.10/kg. Hyphen Hydrogen (Namibia) estimates that their green hydrogen in 2030 will cost $1.50/kg. Is this a Japanese-African precedent? Will others follow?
An interesting footnote: currently LNG costs $1-1.10/kg in Japan which could mean that in the near future green hydrogen could become competitive with LNG. Moreover the volatility of the LNG market could further spike LNG prices which is an added incentive to hurry the development of green hydrogen.
Perhaps in the period 2030+ we will be witness to numerous H2 liquified hydrogen carriers making their voyages between Japan, South Korea, China and Africa (Namibia).
Gerard Kreeft, BA (Calvin University, Grand Rapids, USA) and MA (Carleton University, Ottawa, Canada), Energy Transition Adviser, was founder and owner of EnergyWise. He has managed and implemented energy conferences, seminars and university master classes in Alaska, Angola, Brazil, Canada, India, Libya, Kazakhstan, Russia and throughout Europe. Gerard has Dutch and Canadian citizenship and resides in the Netherlands. He writes on a regular basis for Africa Oil + Gas Report, and contributes to IEEFA(Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis). His book the 10 commandments of the Energy Transition is now on sale at Bookstorehttps://books.friesenpress.com/store/title/119734000211674846/Gerard-Kreeft-The-10-Commandments-of-the-Energy-Transition
