The hydrogen industry’s journey mirrors the stages of childhood. In the ‘baby phase’, the focus is on learning from pilot projects – testing out carbon capture in blue hydrogen, running green hydrogen electrolysers flexibly with renewables, exploring nuclear-powered electrolysers (pink hydrogen), and extracting white hydrogen from underground. It’s also about building electrolysers that use fewer rare metals. The goal at this stage is to figure out what works technically.
Next comes the ‘toddler phase,’ where hydrogen must prove itself as a viable business, requiring solid financial returns for first commercial-scale plants, often with substantial financial support. However, the volume of low-carbon hydrogen produced remains small – insufficient to replace current usage of grey hydrogen.
With established technology and economics, hydrogen enters the ‘teenager phase,’ scaling up production and building infrastructure to reach more industries and regions. Only then can hydrogen start to substitute fossil fuels, potentially facing pushback from fossil fuel interests.
Finally, in the ‘mature phase,’– if cost problems and anti-lobbying forces are overcome, hydrogen could become mainstream, supported by robust regulations and infrastructure. The focus shifts to phasing out old fossil fuel practices, managing workforce transitions, and supporting affected communities.
Although many hydrogen advocates thought the industry was advancing commercially, it has largely reverted to the pilot phase, especially for green hydrogen. There are about 1,700 clean hydrogen projects on the drawing boards globally, and moving these towards final investment decisions (FID) should be the focus for 2026 and beyond. Grants and subsidies are crucial for both innovative and large-scale projects, as is strong demand for low-carbon hydrogen. Streamlined permitting and planning are essential, and overly strict regulations on early projects – for example on the carbon intensity of low carbon hydrogen – should be avoided, as higher standards are more appropriate when the sector matures. To use the earlier analogy: expecting a baby to clean up its own mess is unrealistic; that will come in the ‘toddler and teenage phases’. Finally, it is also crucial to shield the emerging industry from unfair foreign competition – just as we ensure our children’s safety in nursery.
