New map
Green hydrogen is a solution for decarbonizing industrial processes such as steelmaking. However, producing green hydrogen requires large amounts of renewable energy. That combination shifts the game as industries that now rely on fossil fuels gain a real alternative in regions with plentiful sun and wind. Caiafa examines how this can move production toward energy rich areas and what this means for investment, employment and supply chains. Companies face strategic choices about location, technology and contracts for renewable power and hydrogen.
Shifting routes
Shipping liquid green hydrogen is technologically complex and expensive. It can therefore be more attractive to move energy hungry processes to places where green hydrogen and renewable electricity are directly available. This affects industrialized regions with limited renewable capacity and tight labor markets. For companies this brings trade offs among transport costs, security of supply, capital intensive assets and access to talent.
Spreading gains
For countries with strong renewable potential the rise of green hydrogen brings the hope of broad economic development. At the same time, export focused strategies risk delivering mainly low added value while slowing domestic energy transitions. Caiafa underlines that creating value in the producing region is essential, for example by attracting new green industries and strengthening local supply chains. That requires workforce programs, environmental safeguards and social dialogue to ensure prosperity lands sustainably.
Brazil Netherlands
By studying the corridor between the Netherlands and the Brazilian state of Ceará the research shows that colocating green hydrogen production and green steelmaking in Ceará leads to lower costs, price effects, and lower emissions than shipping liquid hydrogen for steel production in the Netherlands. This outcome underscores that realistic cost and emission pictures do not automatically align with preserving existing production sites.
Netherlands ahead
Many strategies in the Netherlands and Europe assume large import flows of green hydrogen while keeping today’s industrial map largely intact. Caiafa’s findings indicate that the competitiveness of energy intensive sectors in regions with limited renewable capacity may not be sustainable over the long term. This suggests alternative approaches may be needed to safeguard the resilience and competitiveness of Dutch and European industry.
What now
The work of the TIS group makes clear that green hydrogen is not only a technological shift but also a socioeconomic one. Caiafa shows that smart colocation can offer a cost effective path with lower emissions, provided policy sets conditions for fair trade, local value creation and faster transitions on both sides of the trading relationship. For companies this means thinking ahead about location, contracting and supply chain integration. For society it is about a fair distribution of benefits and burdens and keeping momentum in the domestic energy transition.
Clara Rabelo Caiafa Pereira defended her thesis on February 6, 2026. Title of the thesis: Structural change in a green hydrogen economy: Socioeconomic and climate change implications. Supervisors: Heleen de Coninck, Henny Romijn and Kurt Kratena Centre of Economic Scenario Analysis and Research CESAR.
