European leadership, Asia’s industrial scale-up, electrolyser cost curves, offshore wind-to-hydrogen, power-to-X value chains, and institutional demand coalesce to set a faster trajectory for low-emissions hydrogen through 2030, with portfolio implications for infrastructure, utilities, mobility, steel and chemicals.
Green hydrogen’s step-change in scale is reframing energy investment through 2024 and 2025, and Burghley Capital places this transition in sharp relief. Global hydrogen use approaches 100 million tonnes in 2024, up 2% from 2023. Low-emissions capacity under construction, financed or operating now points to production exceeding 4 million tonnes a year by the end of this decade, with a broader project pipeline signalling up to 37 million tonnes by 2030. Market value sits at $9.1 billion in 2024 and could reach $134.9 billion by 2030, equating to a 56.8% compound annual growth rate over 2024 to 2030. Europe holds 41% share in 2024, while China accounts for 65% of installed or committed electrolyser capacity through final investment decisions.
A clearer price signal is emerging across technologies. Alkaline electrolysis remains the commercial workhorse with capital costs around $936 to $1,638 per kW at megawatt scale and potential decline to $351 per kW by 2030. Proton exchange membrane systems close the gap on a similar 2030 level. Solid-oxide electrolysis is targeting about $969 per kW by 2030 while offering reduced electrical intensity at high temperatures. The fastest growth vector sits with anion exchange membrane designs, which are moving up the readiness curve and eliminating reliance on scarce catalysts. “Technology risk is no longer binary,” notes James Barker, Director of Private Equity at Burghley Capital, “it is a portfolio of maturities across alkaline, PEM, SOEC and AEM, and that opens room for disciplined, staged capital.”
Power-to-X economics continue to firm as renewables scale. Offshore wind sites with capacity factors near 60 to 70% provide stable load profiles and enable high electrolyser utilisation. Levelised hydrogen costs assess near $2.3 per kg in base cases by 2030, with optimised nodes testing about $0.7 per kg. Hybrid wind-solar configurations tighten variability and show delivered costs ranging roughly $2.5 to $8.4 per kg depending on geography and grid conditions. In Germany, a fully integrated wind-to-hydrogen site with a 5 MW electrolyser now produces about 450 tonnes a year of certified green hydrogen after commissioning in mid-2025, supported by a $14.0 million capital programme.
Downstream use cases are broadening in line with cost curves. Refining remains the largest incumbent draw. Industrial segments now accelerate, with steel transition projects targeting multi-million-tonne green steel output by 2030. Power generation contributes additional revenue, a segment sized at about $207.7 million in 2020 and expanding with flexible generation and storage needs. Petrochemicals add a material pathway, from a $104.5 million 2020 baseline toward multi-billion-dollar applications by 2030. Ammonia shows further traction with a 2030 valuation outlook of about $4.3 billion. “We track sector adoption timelines over the preceding 12-month period and year-to-date, and we see a durable shift from pilots to early commercial baseload,” observes Barker, “with offtake structures and policy support now anchoring bankability.”
Policy frameworks provide structural demand and connective tissue. The European Union targets 10 million tonnes of domestic supply and 10 million tonnes of imports by 2030 through the REPowerEU programme and Important Projects of Common European Interest. Cross-border pipelines advance as the UK-Germany corridor links production with storage and demand centres, while Denmark progresses state-backed routes from Esbjerg to the German border. In Asia, China scales industrial deployments across steel, ammonia, methanol and refining and leads in fuel-cell bus and truck sales in 2024. Japan’s updated strategy plans multi-million-tonne supply outcomes across the next three decades under an investment envelope of about $111.6 billion over 15 years. South Korea’s roadmap targets 5.26 million tonnes of annual output by 2040 with approximately $42.4 billion of private investment through 2030.
For asset allocators, the investment map is clarifying. Year-to-date market estimates cluster between $7.7 billion and $8.1 billion for 2023 to 2024 intervals, highlighting a sector that compounds quickly yet remains early. One research series outlines a pathway from $1.6 billion in 2021 to $84.5 billion by 2030, a 55.1% compound annual growth rate over 2021 to 2030. Another places end-of-decade value near $30.6 billion with a 61.1% compound trajectory over comparable periods. Variance reflects methodology, but the direction is consistent.
Project finance dynamics are improving as electrolyser capex declines, renewable load factors rise and offtake maturities extend. Industrial users seeking decarbonisation now consider long-dated contracts, and grid operators explore flexibility services that monetise hydrogen storage. “The thesis over the preceding 12-month period is straightforward,” adds Barker, “declining unit costs, tightening policy, and credible offtakers translate into investable risk where underwriting can focus on execution rather than technology.”
Burghley Capital continues to track policy alignment, supply-chain resilience and technology readiness across regions. The firm’s outlook highlights differentiated approaches for Europe’s pipeline-connected basins, Asia’s industrial adoption, and North America’s wind and solar hybrids that support integrated production. Near-term catalysts include final investment decisions for gigawatt-scale electrolysers, progress on cross-border corridors, and standardisation of certification that unlocks trade finance. The medium-term view points to multi-asset opportunities across generation, equipment, logistics and end-use platforms.
About Burghley CapitalEstablished in 2017, Burghley Capital Pte. Ltd. (UEN: 201731389D) is a Singapore-headquartered investment manager with a focus on long-only strategies. The firm combines rigorous analytics, tailored portfolio construction and dedicated advisory to help institutions and private clients pursue durable outcomes through market cycles. Its discipline centres on research depth, risk management and transparent client service. Further information is available at https://burghleycapital.com/resources. Media enquiries: Martin Wei, [email protected]. General information: https://burghleycapital.com.
