“Europe, China, the United States, and the Gulf are competing with subsidies and megaprojects. Behind climate discourse lies a struggle for energy hegemony and the promise of a new industry that can become a lever of sovereignty or an extractive mirage.”
Green hydrogen has ceased to be a laboratory concept and has become the centerpiece of the global energy transition. The International Renewable Energy Agency projects more than USD 240 billion in investments by 2030 and estimates that demand could reach 100 million tons per year by the same horizon. The figures are staggering and the competition is already underway.
The United States subsidizes each kilo with up to USD 3 through the Inflation Reduction Act. Germany pays up to USD 5.5 through the H2Global program. China controls 40% of the world’s electrolysis capacity and is launching massive projects in Inner Mongolia. Saudi Arabia is developing NEOM, an USD 8.4 billion complex set to produce 600 tons per day of green hydrogen in 2026. Latin America is trying to ride this wave with Chile, Brazil, Colombia, and Argentina deploying their own strategies.
The energy map is being reconfigured in real time. What is at stake is not only how to replace fossil fuels, but who will control the value chains, who will emerge as an exporter of clean energy, and who will be reduced to a supplier of raw materials. The green hydrogen race is climatic, technological, and geopolitical. The next five years will decide whether the planet moves toward a just transition or toward a global mirage painted green.
Europe and its climate obsession
Europe has decided that green hydrogen will be the heart of its climate and energy security strategy. The European Commission has set a goal of producing 10 million tons per year of renewable hydrogen by 2030 and importing another 10 million from Africa, the Middle East, and Latin America. Brussels understands that it is not enough to electrify easy sectors such as urban mobility. The challenge is to decarbonize steel, cement, fertilizers, and maritime and air transport. For that, green hydrogen appears as the indispensable tool.
The European plan rests on massive subsidies. Germany leads with the H2Global program that offers up to USD 5.5 per kilo of hydrogen or derivatives and secures long-term purchase contracts that reduce financial risk. Spain announced more than EUR 10 billion in incentives for renewable hydrogen projects, and France committed another EUR 9 billion through 2030. The European Union also launched the European Clean Hydrogen Alliance, channeling community funds to companies such as Air Liquide, Siemens, and Thyssenkrupp.
Projects are no longer just models. In the Netherlands, the NortH2 consortium led by Shell, RWE, and Equinor plans to install 10 GW of electrolysis by 2040 with an initial 1 GW phase operational in 2027. In Spain, the Puertollano plant is under construction and will produce 3,000 tons per year of green hydrogen with an investment of EUR 150 million. In Portugal, the Sines project aims to turn the country into an export hub for northern Europe.
The bet is clear. Europe seeks to reduce its dependence on Russian gas, meet its climate commitments, and at the same time consolidate a new clean heavy industry. The risk is that demand will grow faster than supply and that dependency will shift from Moscow to Rabat, Riyadh, or Santiago. Europe wants energy autonomy but may end up importing yet another dependency painted green.
The United States and the IRA
The United States has burst into the green hydrogen race with one of the most ambitious climate policies in its history. The Inflation Reduction Act, approved in 2022, allocated USD 369 billion to clean energy and placed hydrogen at the center of the strategy. Every kilo of green hydrogen produced on U.S. soil receives up to USD 3 in direct subsidies. The effect was immediate. In less than two years, dozens of projects have been announced with investment commitments exceeding USD 40 billion.
The Department of Energy selected seven development poles in 2023, known as Hydrogen Hubs. Texas, California, the East Coast, and the Midwest lead this network. These hubs aim to decarbonize heavy sectors such as steel, fertilizers, and long-distance transport. The first plants will come online between 2026 and 2027 and already have supply contracts under negotiation.
The strategy seeks more than emissions reduction. Washington wants to displace China in the manufacture of electrolyzers and in the technological value chain. Green hydrogen is for the United States a climate tool, but above all an industrial and geopolitical one. The race to dominate it is being played out both in the market and in the factory.
China and Asia
China is today the world’s largest producer of hydrogen with more than 60% of global output, though most still comes from coal. Beijing has decided to change that matrix and lead the transition to green hydrogen. The country controls 40% of global electrolyzer capacity and its manufacturers offer equipment up to 30% cheaper than in the West.
The five-year plan includes more than 200 projects at different stages. Among them is the Ordos cluster in Inner Mongolia, which will add more than 1 GW of electrolysis before 2028. The state oil company Sinopec announced a USD 2.9 billion complex in Ulanqab that will produce 100,000 tons per year of green hydrogen. Altogether China has committed more than USD 33 billion to renewable hydrogen by 2030.
The strategy goes beyond production. China wants to dominate the entire value chain. Controlling the manufacturing of electrolyzers, fuel cells, and turbines ensures a privileged position vis-à-vis Europe and the United States. Japan and South Korea are advancing in parallel with projects for maritime transport, power generation, and ammonia exports. Asia as a whole understands that green hydrogen is not only clean energy but also an industrial and technological battleground.
The Middle East and Africa
The Persian Gulf seeks to convert its oil rents into renewable hegemony. Saudi Arabia leads the offensive with the NEOM megaproject, an USD 8.4 billion investment that will begin producing 600 tons per day of green hydrogen in 2026. The complex is designed to export green ammonia to Europe and Asia and to become the largest in the world. The United Arab Emirates is developing projects in Dubai and Abu Dhabi worth over USD 2 billion, linked to airlines and shipping companies seeking to decarbonize their supply chains.
Africa is also emerging as a key stage. Morocco plans to install 6 GW of electrolysis capacity before 2035 with European financing. Namibia signed agreements worth more than USD 10 billion for the Hyphen project, which should produce 300,000 tons per year of green hydrogen starting in 2027. Egypt is advancing in the Suez Canal area with USD 12 billion in investments to build export hubs to the Mediterranean.
The appeal lies in abundant sun and wind, but the risk is repeating colonial schemes. Europe is already negotiating long-term import contracts to secure part of the 10 million tons per year it wants to source from outside its territory by 2030. The problem is that local industrialization is advancing slowly. Without electrolyzer factories or their own value chains, Africa may become a cheap supplier while profits concentrate in the North.
Latin America
Latin America is seeking a place in the global green hydrogen race. Chile is the most advanced, with more than 70 projects at different stages and a projected investment portfolio close to USD 100 billion by 2030. The official goal is to produce 1 million tons per year of green hydrogen, mainly in Magallanes and Antofagasta. Companies such as HIF Global, Engie, and Enaex are leading initiatives to export e-fuels to Europe and Asia.
Brazil is betting on greater scale. In the ports of Pecém and Suape, potential investments exceed USD 200 billion by 2040. The country seeks to become an export hub thanks to abundant solar and wind resources. Several projects exceed 10 GW of electrolysis in planning and memorandums of understanding have already been signed with German and Japanese companies.
Colombia is moving forward with a goal of 3 GW of electrolysis by 2030 and export projections from the Caribbean coast. The government expects to attract more than USD 5 billion in private investment. Argentina, though lagging, is pushing pilots in Patagonia with an eye on exports to Europe and Asia.
The regional dilemma is clear. Countries have unique natural conditions, but the risk is repeating the history of copper, oil, or lithium. Exporting green hydrogen as a raw material without developing domestic industry could leave Latin America in a peripheral role. The alternative is to create local value chains that generate jobs, manufacturing, and technological sovereignty before export contracts define a path of no return.
Global risks
The green hydrogen race does not only bring opportunities. It also exposes deep risks that could transform the promise into a mirage. The first is the asymmetry between North and South. The United States and Germany subsidize, while countries like Chile or Colombia barely offer limited tax credits. That financing gap could leave much of the planet out of the competition.
Arisk is greenwashing. Not all hydrogen promoted as green really is. The lack of strict certification allows fossil electricity to be mixed into production. The International Energy Agency estimates that nearly 60% of the world’s hydrogen is still gray. Without clear rules, the credibility of the transition is at stake.
Infrastructure is another critical point. To reach the 2030 targets, the world will need more than 300,000 km of adapted pipelines and dozens of specialized ports to move hydrogen and derivatives such as ammonia and methanol. These investments exceed USD 500 billion and still lack secured financing.
Finally there is the geopolitical risk. Control of the value chain will determine new dependencies. If production is concentrated in a few countries and manufacturing in Asia, green hydrogen could cement an unequal map similar to oil. The energy transition could be born marked by the same tensions it sought to overcome.
Projects setting the global pace
Green hydrogen is no longer just a PowerPoint announcement. Across regions, there are projects producing at pilot scale and others entering mass operation within the next five years. The most emblematic is NEOM in Saudi Arabia, with an USD 8.4 billion investment and the capacity to generate 600 tons per day of green hydrogen from 2026. It will be the world’s largest complex and will export green ammonia to Europe and Asia.
- Europe: NortH2 in the Netherlands and the North Sea, backed by Shell, RWE, and Equinor. The goal is 10 GW of electrolysis by 2040, with a first 1 GW phase in 2027. Germany is advancing with H2Global, which secures long-term contracts and subsidies of up to USD 5.5 per kilo.
- United States: Regional Clean Hydrogen Hubs, seven poles from Texas to California, already have over USD 40 billion in committed investments. The first plants will operate between 2026 and 2027.
- China: Ordos cluster with more than 1 GW before 2028 and USD 33 billion committed in projects through 2030. Sinopec’s Ulanqab complex alone requires USD 2.9 billion and will produce 100,000 tons per year.
- Brazil: Pecém and Suape ports project more than USD 200 billion in investments by 2040, with planning goals exceeding 10 GW.
- Namibia: Hyphen project, USD 10 billion, projected 300,000 tons per year starting in 2027.
The projects set the pulse of green hydrogen. They are not trials but industrial bets at continental scale. Their success or failure will determine whether green hydrogen ceases to be a promise and becomes a global energy reality.
The giants of green hydrogen
The global map of green hydrogen is best understood by looking at concrete projects with confirmed investments and defined capacity. These are not vague announcements but figures showing where the energy race is truly being played.
- NEOM, Saudi Arabia: USD 8.4 billion investment, 600 tons per day of green hydrogen from 2026
- NortH2, Netherlands: Target of 10 GW of electrolysis by 2040, 1 GW operational in 2027
- Hydrogen Hubs, United States: 7 hubs with over USD 40 billion in investments, first plants in 2026 with initial capacity in the hundreds of thousands of tons per year
- Sinopec Ulanqab, China: USD 2.9 billion investment, 100,000 tons per year of green hydrogen by 2028
- China global commitment: More than USD 33 billion by 2030, over 200 projects at various stages
- Brazil, Pecém and Suape: Projections of more than USD 200 billion by 2040, with planning targets exceeding 10 GW
- Namibia, Hyphen: USD 10 billion, 300,000 tons per year projected from 2027
These projects mark the rhythm of green hydrogen. They are not experiments but industrial-scale bets. On their success or failure depends whether green hydrogen becomes a real global energy alternative.
Final reflections
Green hydrogen has become the planet’s new energy frontier. Europe, the United States, China, the Gulf, and Latin America are running with billions of dollars and promises of millions of tons per year. The official narrative presents it as the key to meeting climate targets and decarbonizing sectors impossible to electrify with traditional renewables.
But behind the figures lie open questions. Will green hydrogen be a driver of energy sovereignty or a new global dependency? Will it be a lever to create industry and jobs, or will the pattern repeat of exporting raw materials while buying expensive technology? The decade 2025–2035 will mark whether the world builds a just transition or whether the green mirage becomes another bubble inflated by subsidies.
Green hydrogen could be the lever that frees the planet from fossil fuels. It could also be just another mirage in the desert of unfulfilled promises. Everything will depend on how projects are executed, on the capacity to include regions and communities, and on whether the great powers understand that the future is measured not only in gigawatts or tons, but in justice, sovereignty, and shared dignity.
References
- IEA, Global Hydrogen Review (2023)
- IRENA, Green Hydrogen Cost and Investment Outlook (2022)
- European Commission, REPowerEU (2022) and H2Global (2023)
- US Department of Energy, Inflation Reduction Act (2022) and Hydrogen Hubs (2023)
- Hydrogen Council, Global Hydrogen Projects Database (2024)
- BloombergNEF, Hydrogen Market Outlook (2023)
- NEOM Project, Saudi Arabia (Air Products, ACWA Power)
- GIZ, Hydrogen Potential in Africa and the Middle East (2022)
- H2Chile and ALIDE, Green Hydrogen in Latin America (2023)
