A major new study led by top researchers from the Technical University of Munich, the University of Oxford, and ETH Zurich is throwing some cold water on Europe’s green hydrogen dreams—at least when it comes to importing it from Africa.
Green hydrogen exports from Africa face steep challenges
It turns out that getting green hydrogen from Africa to Europe could cost a whole lot more than expected. Why? According to the study, the biggest issue isn’t the technology—it’s the money. Specifically, the high financing risks tied to political and legal uncertainties in many African countries are making investors think twice.
In fact, the researchers took a deep dive into around 10,000 coastal locations across Africa—and found that less than 2% of them could realistically produce hydrogen at a price that competes on the global market. And that’s assuming European governments are willing to step in with some pretty significant financial guarantees.
Only a handful of sites show real potential
At the moment, just about 200 sites—spread across Algeria, Kenya, Mauritania, Morocco, Namibia, and Sudan—look like they might be up to the task. But even those depend on favorable deals and solid outside support to make the math work.
That’s a far cry from the widespread optimism that surrounded Africa’s role in Europe’s vision for sustainable energy and industrial decarbonization. With green hydrogen production heavily relying on long-term investments and stable partnerships, this new data is a wake-up call for policymakers banking on cheap imports to hit their net-zero targets.
