BAKU, Azerbaijan, June 8. Clean hydrogen is
expected to play an expanding—though varied—role in global energy
systems by 2050, according to Equinor’s latest scenario outlooks,
Trend
reports.
Its contribution to final energy use will depend heavily on the
pace of decarbonisation, infrastructure rollout, and cost dynamics
across regions.
In the Walls scenario, clean hydrogen demand rises from
near-zero today to nearly 200 million tonnes of oil equivalent
(Mtoe) by 2050. While this marks a substantial increase, hydrogen
remains a niche player, making up only 2% of total final energy
demand by mid-century. The limited uptake is attributed to high
production costs, infrastructure hurdles, and competition for
renewable electricity. Demand in Walls is mainly concentrated in
industry and transport, with limited application in the power
sector.
Europe remains a major advocate for hydrogen, motivated by its
net zero targets, but struggles to meet ambitious goals due to
concerns around energy affordability and supply security. Imports
are seen as vital, as domestic hydrogen production is constrained
by cost factors. In contrast, North America is positioned to become
a hydrogen leader, thanks to low natural gas prices and strong
export potential.
In Asia-Pacific, industrial hubs see opportunities to deploy
hydrogen for decarbonising thermal power generation, especially in
regions with young fossil fuel-based fleets. Meanwhile, China
emerges as a potential hydrogen heavyweight—capable of becoming a
largely self-sufficient consumer, leveraging its vast renewables
base to meet rising demand for hydrogen derivatives in transport
and industry.
In the more ambitious Bridges EP23 scenario, clean hydrogen
becomes a cornerstone of global decarbonisation, growing to nearly
10% of total final energy demand by 2050. Hydrogen plays a crucial
role in eliminating emissions from dispatchable gas-fired power
generation, especially where electrification and direct renewable
use are limited.
In this scenario, China sees the fastest growth in hydrogen
demand by 2030, accounting for roughly 40% of global use in the
near term. By 2050, although it remains the largest market, its
share falls to 20% as demand accelerates elsewhere. Electricity
generation accounts for over 40% of hydrogen use by 2050, followed
by industrial processes at nearly 25%.
Crucially, the share of green hydrogen (produced via
electrolysis using renewable energy) grows sharply in Bridges
EP23—exceeding 50% by the early 2030s, and reaching over 80% by
2050, indicating a significant shift away from fossil fuel-based
hydrogen.
Equinor’s outlook highlights the critical but complex role
hydrogen could play in the energy transition: essential for
decarbonising hard-to-electrify sectors, yet still subject to
economic, technical, and policy uncertainties that will shape its
trajectory across regions.
