The future is not in pipes; it is in sovereignty. And Chile has yet to take control.
How much is green hydrogen worth and who controls it?
Green hydrogen is not just an energy solution. It is a global financial commitment. Today, producing one ton of green hydrogen costs between $3,000 and $7,000, depending on the country, the technology, and the local price of renewable energy. In Chile, thanks to the sun in the north and the wind in the south, that cost could fall to $1.5 or $2 per kilo by 2030, making it one of the most competitive on the planet.
One ton of green hydrogen can generate the energy equivalent of 2.6 barrels of oil. If the barrel is priced at $80, a ton of hydrogen could be worth between $200 and $250 as a replacement energy source. But the market is not the same. Hydrogen can be transported as ammonia, converted into e-fuel, or used to power entire industries without emissions. This raises its added value to $800 or $1,000 per ton, according to projections by Bloomberg and the IEA.
The global market for green hydrogen could be worth more than $1.4 trillion a year by 2050. Sixty percent of that market will be outside the countries that produce it. Germany, Japan, South Korea, and even China will be the big buyers. The question is who will own the supply. Today, it is not the states. It is the same companies that already dominate lithium, gas, wind energy, and electricity: Total, Engie, Shell, Repsol, Siemens, BP, Hyundai, Enel, and ExxonMobil.
Chile has the resource, but not the key. And as long as it has no control over the molecule, it will only be a transit territory. The future is not in pipes. It is in sovereignty. In deciding whether the wind will be Chilean or German, whether the sun will be for us or for Porsche. In knowing whether this time the map will be drawn with blood or with other people’s signatures.
The giants of the world and the race for the molecule
The competition has already begun. Germany has committed more than €10 billion in subsidies and infrastructure to secure its supply of green hydrogen, even if it has to import it from Namibia, Australia, or Chile. It has already set up its first plants in Lower Saxony and Hamburg, with an initial electrolysis capacity of 1 GW and plans to export to the Netherlands and Belgium. Its goal is to replace 20% of Russian gas with hydrogen by 2035.
Australia is moving forward with continent-wide projects. The Western Green Energy Hub megaproject alone plans to invest $70 billion to produce 3.5 million tons of green hydrogen per year, equivalent to nearly 9 million barrels of oil.
China, meanwhile, has invested more than $20 billion in hydrogen since 2015. Although it currently leads in gray hydrogen (produced from coal), it has already begun its technological transition with more than 100 green hydrogen projects in the pilot phase, mainly in the provinces of Hebei and Inner Mongolia. Its goal is not only to produce, but to control the entire value chain: electrolysers, compressors, batteries, turbines, synthetic ammonia.
And Chile, meanwhile, appears on international maps as an ideal supplier due to its cheap energy. But it is not among the owners. It has no public company. It does not participate in industrial design. It does not lead in its own technology. It only provides the wind, water, land and silence.
The global market in 2030 and Chile’s potential place
According to the International Energy Agency, green hydrogen could cover up to 10% of global energy consumption by 2030. That would mean production of more than 100 million tons per year, with a projected market of more than $1 trillion.
In this scenario, countries that manage to produce cheaply and export in volume will lead the energy map. Chile, with some of the cheapest solar energy on the planet and stable coastal winds, has the potential to produce more than 25 million tons per year, according to estimates by the Ministry of Energy. That figure represents about 25% of expected future global demand. But not of our decisions.
Today, the most conservative projections indicate that if Chile manages to bring its projects to fruition, it could earn more than $30 billion annually by 2035. That is more than what copper currently brings in. But without public enterprise, without ownership of the technologies, and without sovereign participation, all that will be just a commission. When the world breathes hydrogen, some countries will sell clean air and others will buy promises. Let Chile be among the first. Let it not repeat its history. Let it not miss out on the most important molecule of the century.
What we must do now and what we must avoid in order not to repeat history
Chile has been late to too many revolutions. It lost saltpeter when it had the richest desert on the planet. It lost lithium when it had the most strategic salt flat in the world. It lost steel, privatized water, dismantled ENAMI, and handed over its ports to multinationals.
The country needs to create a National Green Hydrogen Company today to research, invest, design, produce, and export under public control. A company that thinks 50 years ahead and operates with technical autonomy, industrial efficiency, and a national purpose. There must be legal reform so that Codelco, Enap, and Corfo can be part of this design. Ownership of the water, solar, and wind energy that will power the electrolysers must be guaranteed. And a just transition plan must be drawn up that integrates communities, universities, and workers.
Australia has committed more than $10 billion in public funds. Germany has financed 62 pilot projects with state participation. China has merged green hydrogen and batteries as part of its five-year plan. And Chile? For now, it is signing memoranda. But there is still time.
The other 30 projects and Chile’s new energy map
Chile has more than 30 green hydrogen projects in various stages of evaluation. Together, they represent more than $45 billion in projected investment.
But 98% are foreign-owned or mixed. Chile has 20% of the world’s potential to produce green hydrogen. If all these projects were to come online by 2030, the country could export more than 8 million tons per year, equivalent to revenues of more than $20 billion per year. But under the current scheme, that number will not be for Chile. It will be for those who control it.
Every time Chile exports without governing, it sells its future. Every time it signs without demanding, it gives away power. And every time it repeats history, it forgets itself.
Green hydrogen, the backbone
Chile has already lost saltpeter. It lost steel. It lost lithium. It lost half of the copper that once belonged to it. And not because of a lack of resources, but because of a lack of decision. Because it believed that contracts are worth more than people. Because it let consulting firms govern. Because it surrendered to a technocracy that calculates in dollars but not in dignity.
Today, the country is facing an opportunity that will not be repeated. Green hydrogen is not a fad. It is the backbone of the new global energy map. And Chile has everything. It has sun, it has water, it has engineers, it has sea, it has wind, it has science. But it does not have the political power to defend what is theirs. And without sovereignty, there is no development. There is only income.
Green hydrogen should not be a business; it should be sovereignty, it should be the state, it should be the future. And anyone who does not understand this should not govern this country. Chile does not need more treaties or more excuses. It needs a public company that represents its people, controls its energy, and speaks out.
This time, it is not for sale. This time, it is staying.
