Demand is rebounding this year, rising by 0.7 percent over the first six months — and yet fossil fuel generation has continued to fall: Coal generation dropped by 24 percent and gas by 14 percent compared to the same period last year. It’s the first time gas and coal generation have declined in the EU without energy demand also trending downward, the report notes.
The EU’s shift toward solar and wind is also due in part to recently passed permitting reforms, which have allowed renewables to be built and brought online much faster. “That was the main bottleneck for deploying renewables a few years ago, and it’s in the process of being solved,” said Chris Wright, climate strategy advisor at Ember.
In the first half of the year, solar generation expanded by 20 percent compared to the first half of 2023, while wind generation ticked up by 9.5 percent. Hydro power also grew by 21 percent; combined with solar and wind, the three renewable sources generated half of the EU’s electricity during the period — a jump from the record set last year of 44 percent.
Emissions from the power sector have declined in turn, falling by nearly one-third compared to the first half of 2022, an even larger decline than during the Covid-19 pandemic. Despite the progress, the report emphasizes that plenty of barriers — such as grid capacity constraints — must be overcome to allow renewables to grow fast enough to deal with the climate crisis.
Still, Ember predicts solar and wind will continue their momentum in the coming months.
Nearly 62 gigawatts of solar capacity and 16 gigawatts of wind capacity are expected to be installed in the EU this year, according to forecasts from SolarPower Europe and Wind Europe, setting the two power sources up to continue to exceed fossil fuel generation through at least the first half of 2025.
In other words: “It’s very likely that that is a kind of permanent shift in the EU’s electricity mix,” Graham said.