Regulatory uncertainty and economic pressures seem to slow maritime decarbonization, with significant differences emerging between European and global progress.
On November 11, Eni, Fincantieri and RINA presented the second edition of the Sustainable Maritime Transport Outlook in Rome, developed with technical support from Bain & Company Italy. The study examines alternative fuels, emissions reduction potential, technological maturity, infrastructure availability and total cost of ownership through 2050.
According to the outlook, the decarbonization landscape has become more uncertain compared with the previous year, primarily due to regulatory developments, macroeconomic pressures and challenges involving fuel and infrastructure availability.
The report identifies regulatory uncertainty as the most significant obstacle, noting that the postponement of the IMO’s global decarbonization agreement has weakened investment confidence. Meanwhile, Europe continues to pursue its established targets under FuelEU Maritime, creating a growing divergence between regional and global approaches.
The study also highlights economic pressures, including slower growth, tariffs and geopolitical tensions, while the ongoing crisis in the Strait of Hormuz continues to threaten trade flows and economic stability.
The analysis draws on interviews with stakeholders across the shipping value chain, including shipowners and operators representing approximately 40% of the container market and 20% of the cruise market, as well as engine and propulsion technology suppliers accounting for more than 80% of the internal combustion engine market.
Europe and global shipping face different decarbonization pathways
Under the outlook’s reference scenario, described as Today as Future, Europe is projected to achieve an 80% reduction in emissions intensity by 2050 compared with 2020 levels, while the corresponding global reduction is estimated at approximately 40%.
The report also examines a slower scenario, Decarbonization by 2070, under which Europe’s targets would be delayed until 2070, with the rest of the world following several years later.
The findings indicate that existing European regulations and associated financial penalties could significantly influence fuel choices over the coming decades. In 2030, conventional fossil fuels are expected to remain the most cost-effective options, while synthetic fuels could cost approximately three times as much.
However, from 2040 onward, increasing European emissions penalties are expected to improve the competitiveness of biofuels. By 2050, fossil fuels could become approximately twice as expensive as more sustainable alternatives when regulatory costs are included.
Alternative fuel projections for 2050
- European fuel mix: ~33% biofuels projected by 2050
- European fuel mix: ~20% synthetic fuels projected by 2050
- Global fuel mix: ~70% conventional fuels projected by 2050
- European ports: $15bn estimated infrastructure investment
The outlook suggests that LNG and biofuels offer commercially available solutions for reducing emissions in the short and medium term, while synthetic fuels derived from green hydrogen will be needed to achieve longer-term decarbonization objectives.
However, synthetic fuels remain expensive, and their development depends on supply chains and supporting infrastructure that have yet to reach sufficient maturity.
Compared with the previous edition, the projected contribution of synthetic fuels to Europe’s fuel mix has been reduced by approximately half. As a result, estimated investment requirements for European port infrastructure have fallen from around $25 billion to $15 billion.
The report also indicates that LNG will remain a significant alternative fuel for cruise shipping, with bio-LNG and synthetic LNG potentially supporting the progressive decarbonization of existing LNG-powered vessels.
Meanwhile, nuclear propulsion is not expected to make a substantial contribution to emissions reductions by 2050, although the first new nuclear-powered commercial vessels could enter service between 2040 and 2045.
Key challenges identified by the study
The stakeholder interviews identified several obstacles that continue to affect investment and the adoption of lower-emission technologies:
- Regulatory uncertainty: The absence of a stable global framework is delaying investment decisions.
- Fuel costs: Shipowners face difficulties passing the additional costs of alternative fuels on to customers.
- Infrastructure limitations: Bottlenecks are more pronounced in onshore infrastructure and fuel supply chains than in shipboard technology.
- Investment confidence: Uncertain fuel demand and availability are affecting the development of new production and bunkering infrastructure.
- Technology selection: Shipowners increasingly favor mature and commercially available solutions rather than committing to technologies with uncertain future economics.
The outlook emphasizes the need for coordinated action across the shipping value chain, including common regulatory standards, targeted port infrastructure investment, diversified fuel supplies and vessels designed to accommodate different propulsion technologies.
It also calls for continued research and development, particularly in areas where technology and infrastructure remain insufficiently developed.
The organizations further announced an agreement to continue their joint Observatory activities for another three years, with the possibility of expanding participation to additional stakeholders.
