A new geospatial analysis published in Cleaner Engineering and Technology estimates that Morocco could produce approximately 12.28 million metric tons of green hydrogen annually if a specific portion of its high-potential land is developed for concentrated solar power. The study, led by Nouriddine Houran, Amine Allouhi, and Abdelilah Rochd, utilizes an integrated multi-criteria decision-making framework to identify optimal sites for solar-to-hydrogen infrastructure across the country’s twelve administrative regions. By combining high-resolution spatial data with engineering performance metrics, the researchers provide a detailed roadmap for scaling renewable energy production in alignment with national decarbonization targets.
The research addresses a critical gap in previous siting models, which often treated solar resources and plant performance as uniform across different geographic areas. This study integrates region-specific capacity factors, transport logistics, and water resource governance to offer a more realistic assessment of hydrogen yields. The methodology relies on a two-phase geographic information system workflow that first filters out legally and environmentally restricted zones before ranking the remaining feasible land based on technical and socio-economic criteria.
In the first phase, known as restriction analysis, the team applied a fifteen-layer geospatial exclusion mask to identify areas where concentrated solar power systems cannot be installed. This binary constraint check eliminates land within buffer zones of military installations, protected areas, urban extents, and forest reserves. Specific buffer distances were applied based on Moroccan regulations and engineering best practices, such as a 500-meter setback from military zones and a 13,000-meter clearance from existing solar plants to prevent shading and thermal interference.
The second phase, the key performance indicator-based analysis, evaluates the suitability of the remaining candidate areas using nine weighted criteria. The Analytic Hierarchy Process was used to assign relative importance to these factors, with capacity factor receiving the highest weight at 32.6 percent, followed by direct normal irradiance at 16.9 percent and temperature at 15.3 percent. This weighting scheme reflects the critical role of system-level performance in determining actual energy output, distinguishing it from simple resource mapping that ignores operational losses.
The quantitative assessment assumes a conservative 10 percent build-out of the identified high-potential land, a fraction consistent with practical deployment rates observed in other regions such as Cameroon and Spain. Using a land requirement of 3.4 hectares per megawatt for parabolic trough collectors, the model calculates a maximum installed capacity of approximately 231.51 gigawatts. This capacity, combined with region-specific capacity factors, supports an annual electrical energy production of roughly 630 terawatt-hours, which serves as the input for hydrogen generation calculations.
Hydrogen production estimates are derived from the annual electricity output, assuming an electrolyzer efficiency of 65 percent and a lower heating value of 33.33 kilowatt-hours per kilogram. The resulting national potential of 12.28 million metric tons per year is distributed unevenly across the country, with southern regions contributing the largest share. Souss-Massa and Guelmim Oued Noun emerge as the top performers, yielding 2.74 and 2.62 million metric tons annually, respectively, driven by their vast flatlands and robust solar resource quality.
While the southern regions dominate in absolute production volume, the study highlights that central and northern regions offer superior spatial and infrastructure efficiency. Areas such as Casablanca-Settat and Rabat-Salé-Kénitra achieve higher hydrogen yields per hectare and per gigawatt of installed capacity, making them potentially valuable for early-stage deployment where land is more constrained but infrastructure is better developed. This spatial heterogeneity suggests a differentiated strategy is necessary to balance bulk production with logistical feasibility.
The identification of these high-potential zones is closely tied to existing and planned infrastructure, including commercial ports, transmission lines, and water resources. The very high potential zones cover approximately 7.87 million hectares, or 10.9 percent of Morocco’s total land area, and are strategically located to support export corridors to Europe. The alignment of solar resources with logistical infrastructure reduces the cost and complexity of transporting green hydrogen, a key factor in the economic viability of the sector.
Water scarcity remains a significant constraint for concentrated solar power plants in arid regions, as these systems require water for cooling, mirror cleaning, and electrolysis. The study notes that dry-cooling or hybrid configurations can reduce water usage by 50 to 90 percent, albeit with minor efficiency penalties. Co-locating plants with seawater desalination facilities along the Atlantic coast is proposed as a mitigation strategy to ensure sustainable water supply for large-scale operations.
The authors acknowledge several limitations in their model, including the focus on parabolic trough technology and the use of a uniform build-out fraction across all suitable land. The grid infrastructure data relies on OpenStreetMap, which may have incomplete coverage in southern Morocco, and the study does not compute the levelized cost of hydrogen or model pipeline infrastructure costs. These factors are identified as priorities for future techno-economic work to refine the planning baseline.
This research provides a robust spatial framework for policymakers and investors seeking to position Morocco as a competitive hub for green hydrogen exports. By integrating multi-criteria decision-making with high-resolution geospatial data, the study offers actionable guidance for prioritizing investment in regions that maximize both energy yield and infrastructure efficiency. The findings underscore the importance of a phased deployment roadmap that leverages existing assets while expanding into high-potential southern territories.
The study contributes to the broader understanding of how renewable energy siting can be optimized through the integration of environmental, technical, and logistical factors. It demonstrates that a dual-lens approach, evaluating both absolute yield and spatial efficiency, offers a more operationally grounded ranking than single-metric methods. This comprehensive assessment supports the development of a resilient green hydrogen program that aligns with Morocco’s national energy strategy and international partnership commitments.
The study situates Morocco’s potential within a broader geopolitical and industrial context, noting that the European Commission’s 2020 Hydrogen Strategy explicitly targets 10 megatonnes of imports by 2030, with North Africa identified as a priority supplier. At the continental level, the African Union’s Green Hydrogen Strategy designates Morocco as a “first mover” in hydrogen valley development, linking renewable-rich regions to European demand centers. This policy alignment underscores the necessity of aligning technical siting decisions with export infrastructure and water-use governance, moving beyond simple resource mapping to integrate multi-dimensional technical, environmental, and logistical risks into the decision-making process.
Land-use intensity is a critical variable in the feasibility of large-scale concentrated solar power deployment, as collector-area requirements vary significantly by technology. The study utilizes a specific land requirement of 3.4 hectares per megawatt for parabolic trough collectors, a figure consistent with broader industry benchmarks that report typical requirements of approximately 2.5 hectares per megawatt for parabolic troughs, 0.8 hectares per megawatt for linear Fresnel systems, and 3.6 hectares per megawatt for power towers. This variation highlights the importance of technology selection in spatial planning, as alternative systems such as Fresnel or Tower configurations may offer distinct advantages depending on site-specific constraints, such as spatial limitations or high direct normal irradiance conditions.
The integration of concentrated solar power with hydrogen production offers distinct technical advantages over photovoltaic-only pathways, primarily due to CSP’s built-in thermal energy storage. This capability enables continuous power generation after sunset, addressing the intermittency challenges associated with variable renewable sources. Furthermore, the high-temperature heat generated by CSP systems can drive thermochemical water-splitting cycles or preheat electrolyzers, which the authors note can boost solar-to-hydrogen efficiencies by 15 to 20 percent relative to PV-only pathways. Recent techno-economic evaluations further project that levelized hydrogen costs could fall below 4 USD per kilogram when North African direct normal irradiance is paired with high-pressure PEM electrolysis in hybrid CSP–electrolyzer plants, suggesting a favorable economic trajectory for such integrated systems.
The methodology’s reliance on the Analytic Hierarchy Process involved constructing a pairwise comparison matrix based on the expertise of researchers at the Green Energy Park research institute, informed by priority hierarchies from prior GIS-MCDM studies. The resulting weights were cross-validated against the mathematical Consistency Ratio criterion, yielding a value of 4.8 percent, which is well below the 10 percent threshold required to indicate a high level of consistency in the pairwise comparisons. This rigorous validation ensures that the priority flow is both internally consistent and coherent with the state of the art in multi-criteria decision-making, providing a robust foundation for the subsequent spatial ranking of potential sites.
Water consumption presents a significant operational challenge for CSP–H2 plants in arid regions, where water stress is severe. The study references detailed assessments showing that wet-cooled parabolic trough CSP can consume up to 3,260 liters per megawatt-hour of water, compared to 210 liters per megawatt-hour for modern natural gas plants. In Morocco’s existing Ouarzazate complex, Phase I wet-cooled plants withdraw 2.8 million cubic meters per year for cooling and mirror washing, whereas the dry-cooled Noor II and III phases require under 0.5 million cubic meters per year. These figures illustrate the substantial water savings achievable through dry-cooling systems, which can reduce water use by over 90 percent, although such systems incur a 2 to 5 percent efficiency penalty. Hybrid wet/dry configurations offer a middle ground, cutting water demand by 50 to 60 percent with less than a 2 percent drop in net output.
The spatial analysis reveals that the highest potential solar zones in the south are geographically distant from the main demand centers in the north and European export terminals, a distance that can cause transmission losses and grid congestion. To mitigate these bottlenecks, the study suggests that developing dedicated high-voltage direct current lines and establishing hydrogen transport pipelines are essential solutions. The alignment of identified high-potential zones with existing transmission corridors allows for efficient power evacuation and infrastructure synergy, supporting the development of integrated multi-vector energy systems. By co-locating CSP plants and hydrogen electrolysis units within these zones, Morocco can optimize land use, reduce transmission losses, and improve the resilience of the energy system, thereby supporting both domestic decarbonization efforts and the global push toward green energy exports.
Subject of Research: Geospatial assessment of concentrated solar power sites for green hydrogen production in Morocco
Article Title: Siting concentrating solar power for green hydrogen in Morocco: An integrated geospatial multi-criteria decision-making framework
Article References: Houran, N., Allouhi, A., & Rochd, A. (2026). Siting concentrating solar power for green hydrogen in Morocco: An integrated geospatial multi-criteria decision-making framework. Cleaner Engineering and Technology, 35, Article 101351. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.clet.2026.101351
Image Credits: AI Generated
DOI: 10.1016/j.clet.2026.101351
Keywords: green hydrogen, concentrated solar power, Morocco, geospatial analysis, multi-criteria decision making, renewable energy, solar irradiance, energy infrastructure, Siting, concentrating, solar, power
