The conglomerate’s summer momentum is proving remarkably resilient. Even as its hydrogen division abandons plans for mass production of a key electrolysis technology — a retreat that carries a €30 million one-time charge — the shares continue to trade within striking distance of their 52-week peak, buoyed by a record defence order book and tangible progress in the steel business.
Thyssenkrupp Nucera, the group’s green hydrogen arm, has decided against investing in its own large-scale manufacturing of SOEC stacks, a critical component for electrolysis. The decision, taken roughly a fortnight ago, triggered the impairment charge in the fourth quarter and forced a downward revision to the division’s earnings outlook. Management now guides for an EBIT loss of between €105 million and €75 million for fiscal 2025/26, a noticeably wider deficit than the €80 million-to-€30 million range previously communicated. Revenue expectations for the green hydrogen segment have also been trimmed, with the company now pencilling in €100 million to €130 million rather than the earlier €120 million-to-€170 million projection.
The pullback underscores a broader industry reality: scaling up industrial manufacturing capacity in hydrogen remains fraught, a challenge that has tripped up other players in the sector as well. Weak order intake at Nucera — just €81 million in the third quarter — had already prompted the company to slash the upper end of its full-year order forecast from €850 million to €670 million. Berenberg responded on 25 August by cutting its revenue and earnings estimates for the 2026 through 2028 period, though the research house kept its “Hold” rating on the stock intact.
Within the context of the wider group, however, the Nucera drag looks manageable. The recently raised group-level EBIT guidance — the lower bound was lifted from €500 million to €600 million around two weeks ago — pertains to the conglomerate’s adjusted earnings and is not threatened by the comparatively small hydrogen segment.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Thyssenkrupp?
The market’s reaction has been telling. Thyssenkrupp shares closed Friday at €14.67, a modest 1.2 percent dip on the day, yet the weekly gain stands at 9.2 percent and the 30-day advance at 23 percent. The stock now sits just 3.4 percent below its 52-week high of €15.18, reached on 28 August. That strength has been driven primarily by the upgraded corporate outlook and a series of analyst upgrades, with the Nucera disappointment doing little to dent investor confidence in a group that spans steel, marine systems, and materials trading.
Supporting the bullish narrative, Thyssenkrupp Marine Systems (TKMS) reported an order book of €20.1 billion after nine months of the current fiscal year — a figure expected to surpass €25 billion once an anticipated frigate programme is factored in. The group retains a 51 percent majority stake in the naval subsidiary, which was listed in October 2025, and the twelve-month lock-up period on that holding expires in October 2026, a date investors will watch closely for potential changes to the ownership structure.
In the steel division, Thyssenkrupp Steel has granted final acceptance to partner Primetals Technologies for the new continuous caster No. 4 at the Duisburg site. The facility, designed for high-margin premium steel grades, represents a concrete step in the company’s shift toward higher-value products. Meanwhile, the Carbon2Chem research project is advancing hydrogen infrastructure for Nucera in Duisburg, alongside plans for a sustainable aviation fuel plant — evidence that long-term transformation initiatives remain on track despite the strained core business.
The Nucera retreat fits into a broader pattern of portfolio reorganisation. An extraordinary general meeting in early August approved the carve-out of the tk accelis division, and the hydrogen decision demonstrates that even growth areas are not immune to course corrections when market conditions or technology pathways shift. For investors, the key question remains whether the group can deliver on its August guidance — and while the Nucera charges are unlikely to be decisive, the volatility in new technology segments serves as a reminder of how uneven the earnings trajectory can be. With the TKMS lock-up expiry on the horizon, the coming months will test whether the conglomerate’s restructuring story can keep pace with its share price.
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Thyssenkrupp Stock: New Analysis – 29 August
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