Plug Power(NASDAQ: PLUG), a developer of hydrogen charging technologies, went public at a reverse-split-adjusted price of $150 per share in 1999. Today, it trades at less than $3. Let’s see why its stock crumbled — and why it could bounce back over the next decade.
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What happened to Plug Power?
Plug Power originally planned to build residential hydrogen charging systems. When low demand, high costs, and regulatory hurdles derailed that ambitious plan, it started developing hydrogen fuel cells, charging systems, electrolyzers, and storage systems instead.
Today, Plug Power’s two largest customers are Amazon and Walmart, which both use its cells and charging systems to power their forklifts. It’s also securing more electrolyzer contracts for producing green hydrogen.
Plug Power suffered a major slowdown in 2024. It had just lapped two major acquisitions, and the macro headwinds were forcing many companies to pause their hydrogen plans. But in 2025, its revenue rose again as the macro environment stabilized and it locked in new contracts.
|
Metric |
2022 |
2023 |
2024 |
2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Revenue |
$701 million |
$891 million |
$629 million |
$710 million |
|
Growth (YOY) |
40% |
27% |
(29%) |
13% |
|
Operating Margin |
(97%) |
(151%) |
(321%) |
(207%) |
|
Net Income (Loss) |
($724 million) |
($1.37 billion) |
($2.10 billion) |
($1.69 billion) |
Data source: Plug Power. YOY = Year-over-year.
Plug’s total number of deployed fuel cell systems rose from around 50,000 at the end of 2021 to over 74,000 at the end of 2025. There’s still plenty of pent-up interest in its systems: it recently secured a 275 MW electrolyzer contract for Hy2gen’s Courant green hydrogen project in Quebec and is building six new green hydrogen facilities for the U.S. Department of Energy.
Where will Plug Power’s stock be in 10 years?
From 2025 to 2028, analysts expect Plug’s revenue to grow at an 18% CAGR to $1.16 billion as it narrows its net losses. That’s a bright outlook for a stock that trades at just four times this year’s sales. Looking further ahead, the global green hydrogen market could expand at a 30.2% CAGR from 2026 to 2033, according to Grand View Research.
If Plug Power matches analysts’ estimates through 2028, grows its revenue at a 20% CAGR over the following eight years, and trades at a more generous 10 times its current year’s sales, its market cap could grow nearly 14 times to $50 billion by 2036. That wouldn’t get it anywhere close to its IPO price — but it would deliver multibagger gains for its current investors.
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Leo Sun has positions in Amazon. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Amazon and Walmart. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
