Waiting for the Tide to Turn
HydrogenPro (“HydrogenPro” or “the Company”) is a leader in the green hydrogen space with the world’s largest single- stack high-pressure alkaline electrolyzer, which is used to produce green hydrogen. Electrolyzers are evaluated based on energy efficiency, where HydrogenPro’s tests confirms a substantial improvement in efficiency with >12-14%, setting a new industry benchmark. The Company has strong global partners and has a proof of concept by delivering electrolyzers to some of the largest hydrogen projects to date. HydrogenPro is well-positioned to capitalize on expected market growth during the forecast period 2026-2029. With an estimated revenue in 2029 of NOK 621m, and by applying a P/S multiple of 1.25x, with a discount rate of 15%, this presents a potential present value of NOK 4.9 (5.2) per share in a Base scenario.
- Visible Operational Improvements in a Transition Quarter
HydrogenPro reported revenues of NOK 15.9m (22.4) in Q1-26, a 29% Y-Y decline, reflecting the wind-down phase of the ACES and SALCOS projects. At the same time, the quarter demonstrated operational progress, with the gross margin recovering to 62%, OPEX decreasing by 27% Y-Y, and EBITDA improving to NOK -31.6m (-49.8), representing the lowest quarterly burn rate in recent reporting periods and validating that the cost reductions executed during 2025.
- Selective but Firmer Momentum in the Market
The green hydrogen market is moving from broad pipeline formation toward selective maturation, where HydrogenPro is well positioned given its validated large-scale track record, European manufacturing footprint and proprietary electrode technology. The European Commission’s recent award of EUR 1.09bn to nine projects under the third European Hydrogen Bank auction provides tangible evidence of a shift from announcements to execution, while HydrogenPro’s own pipeline includes approximately NOK 1bn in late-stage contract negotiations with FIDs anticipated through 2026 and into H1 2027.
- New OEM Agreement with LONGi
HydrogenPro announced a new OEM partnership with LONGi providing access to approximately 1 GW of scaled manufacturing capacity in China, based on HydrogenPro’s proprietary technology, while the existing Tianjin operations are being mothballed. Analyst Group views the agreement as a strategically meaningful evolution of the asset-light business model.
- Revised Outlook and Valuation
Given the continued absence of new orders during the start of 2026, despite emerging positive signals across the market, we have revised our order intake estimates somewhat downwards to reflect a still cautious investment climate. While our long-term view on HydrogenPro remains unchanged, the later timing of order intake implies postponed positive cash flows compared to our previous expectations. As a result, we have revised our valuation range for HydrogenPro.
