The Ministry of Energy of Chile has launched a public consultation on the update of the National Green Hydrogen Strategy 2026–2030. Six years after the original document was released, the new proposal lowers production targets, revises projected costs upwards and prioritises the consolidation of local capabilities over large-scale exports.
The most relevant change compared with the 2020 strategy is the reformulation of quantifiable objectives. Instead of the 25 GW of electrolysis capacity by 2030 proposed previously, the updated roadmap now projects the production of 100–200 kt per year of green hydrogen equivalent for domestic consumption at the beginning of the next decade, in addition to 300–700 kt per year by 2035 for export, and 2–3.5 million tonnes by 2050.
In other words, while success in 2020 was measured in gigawatts, the outgoing administration has decided to change the metric, replacing it with regulatory and infrastructure milestones required to enable the industry.
In terms of costs, the strategy abandons the ambitious USD 1.5/kg target. It now estimates below USD 4/kg by 2030, with costs falling under USD 2/kg only by 2045 (around USD 600 per tonne for green ammonia).
The updated document argues that consolidating domestic consumption is “essential to leverage exports” and to “reduce risks through small- or medium-scale projects”. The idea is to use national industries—such as mining and refining—as testing and scaling platforms before moving decisively towards international ports.
This adjustment in ambition responds to a slower global market, a more moderate decline in electrolyser prices and the difficulties in achieving economies of scale outside China that could significantly reduce costs.
Nevertheless, the government acknowledges that Chile leads green hydrogen investment in Latin America, having met the target of USD 5 billion in investments and 5 GW of electrolysis capacity, based on projects in operation, under construction and those submitted to the Sistema de Evaluación de Impacto Ambiental (SEIA), as well as data from the Corporación de Bienes de Capital.
One of the most visible changes is the prominence gained by hydrogen derivatives such as ammonia, methanol and e-fuels. In fact, the document incorporates an official change of title to “National Green Hydrogen and Derivatives Strategy”, recognising their fundamental role in the logistical and commercial viability of the sector.
At the same time, the new approach repositions domestic demand as a short- and medium-term pillar. In contrast to the export-driven push of 2020, the focus is now on creating the conditions for a robust local industry, with technical learning, skilled human capital and stronger value chains, in order to generate the technology transfer required for the export phase.
The update also sets enabling milestones for 2030, including the deployment of port logistics infrastructure, a national certification system, the use of desalinated or recycled water for electrolysis, and pilot programmes in technical education. These measures aim to ensure that deployment is economically, socially and environmentally sustainable.
In parallel, the strategy projects investments of up to USD 32 billion by 2035, and the creation of 36,000 to 85,000 direct jobs, boosting not only sector growth but also productive diversification in key regions such as Magallanes and Antofagasta.
The public consultation for this strategy will remain open until 15 February 2026 on the Ministry of Energy’s website (www.energia.gob.cl). The final version is expected to be published in March, incorporating the feedback received.
