Requests for data center connections and hydrogen projects already exceed 54 GW and are putting pressure on energy transmission in Brazil. Understand the risks, planned investments, and challenges facing the electricity grid until 2038.
The Brazilian electricity sector is facing one of the biggest planning challenges in its recent history. A survey by the Energy Research Company (EPE), presented in the Transmission section of the Ten-Year Energy Expansion Plan 2035 (PDE 2035), indicates that connection requests for data centers and projects related to hydrogen and ammonia to the Basic Network total 54,2 GW until 2038. According to an article published by the MegaWhat website this Monday (29), this volume is equivalent to more than half of the highest peak electricity consumption ever recorded in the country, of 105 GW, which occurred in February 2025.
Data centers and hydrogen as major new loads on the electricity grid.
Of the total mapped, 26,3 GW refers to data center projects and 27,9 GW to projects associated with the hydrogen industry.The concentration of these electron-intensive charges exerts strong pressure on the power transmission and highlights the need for expansion, modernization, and greater robustness of electrical network national. The magnitude of these numbers places the issue at the center of strategic decisions in the Brazilian electricity sector.
The accelerated growth of data centers This is directly linked to the digitalization of the economy, the advancement of cloud computing and artificial intelligence, and the growing demand for data processing and storage. These facilities operate continuously, with high energy consumption and maximum reliability requirements. electrical network.
In parallel, the expansion of the supply chain hydrogen Low-carbon energy emerges as a strategic driver of the energy transition. Production through electrolysis demands large volumes of electricity, reinforcing the dependence on a… power transmission Safe and stable. Brazil stands out in this scenario due to the high level of renewability of its electricity matrix and the availability of sources for expansion. The combination of data centers and hydrogen redefines the profile of electricity demand and increases the complexity of system planning.
Power transmission at the heart of the PDE 2035 planning.
The pressure from these new loads appears as one of the main points of attention in the PDE 2035. The plan works with different scenarios for the expansion of power transmission, acknowledging uncertainties related to project implementation, environmental licensing, and construction.
In the most optimistic scenario, the PDE projects R$ 147,8 billion in accumulated investments in transmission until 2035In the baseline scenario, considered the most likely, investments total R$ 116,9 billion. In the pessimistic scenario, this amount is reduced to R$ 98,3 billion over the next decade. Regardless of the scenario, the need to reinforce the electrical grid is a consensus among planners.
Dispute over space in energy transmission and connection rules.
According to EPE, the increased interest in data centers and projects hydrogen This is linked to the attractiveness of the Brazilian electricity system. However, the PDE 2035 highlights that the realization of these projects depends on technical, economic, and regulatory conditions.
To the data centersThe document highlights the importance of telecommunications infrastructure, economic and financial viability, and new guarantee rules for access to… power transmissionThese measures aim to prevent speculation and stop unimplemented projects from generating additional costs for other users of the system. electrical network.
In the case of hydrogenHowever, the uncertainties are linked to the international market, the competitiveness of projects, and the consolidation of the national production chain. Without long-term contracts and industrial scale, the risk of delays remains significant.
The electrical grid and the uneven geographical distribution of new loads.
The territorial distribution of connection requests reveals a strong regional asymmetry. The projects of hydrogen They are mostly concentrated in the Northeast, driven by the abundance of wind and solar energy and the proximity to export-oriented ports.
On the other hand, data centers They stand out in the state of São Paulo, where there is a greater concentration of digital infrastructure, connectivity, and consumer centers. This configuration requires specific regional solutions and increases the complexity of… power transmission between generating areas and load centers. This inequality has led EPE to deepen prospective studies for meeting the demands of large loads in the medium and long term.
Structural reinforcements for data centers in the Southeast.
In the Southeast, especially in São Paulo, the PDE 2035 details studies aimed at strengthening the electrical networkPart I of the study of the central region of the capital, completed in February 2024, indicated structural solutions to increase the reliability of the system and meet the estimated expansion of approximately 500 MW in data centers.
The study of the Campinas, Bom Jardim, and Itatiba region, completed in December 2024, recommended reinforcements to substations and an increase in the capacity of 440 kV lines. These interventions allow for the connection of projects in the range of 800 MW to 1 GW, depending on the access point.
EPE also reported that Parts II of these studies are underway, with the expectation of making it feasible. Up to 2,0 GW of additional capacity in the central region of São Paulo and up to 5,0 GW in the Campinas region.In Rio Grande do Sul, the PDE (Strategic Development Plan) foresees a specific study for the inclusion of… data centers, associated with an estimated demand of around 5 GW.
Northeast Brazil exports energy and new energy transmission corridors.
One of the strategic pillars of the PDE 2035 is expanding the Northeast’s energy export capacity. The plan foresees increasing this capacity to… 24 GW, enabling an expansion of wind and solar power generation that could reach 60 GW in the North and Northeast.
At the same time, the import capacity of the Southern region should reach 17 GW in 2033 and 18 GW in 2035. To enable this exchange, EPE selected a system as the technical solution. power transmission High-voltage direct current (HVDC) railway line connecting Angicos, in Rio Grande do Norte, to Itaporanga 2, on the border between São Paulo and Paraná.
The project envisions a transmission line of approximately 2.500 kilometers, a capacity of 3 GW, and an estimated investment of… $ 26,5 billion, with bidding scheduled between 2026 and 2027. This project represents a technological milestone for the Brazilian electricity grid.
Adjustments to the electrical grid planning after the 2023 blackout.
The PDE 2035 incorporates relevant adjustments following the blackout of August 15, 2023. The document reduced the projected interchange limits compared to previous plans, due to challenges in modeling wind and solar power plants in stability simulations.
According to EPE, updates to official models indicated a lower contribution of reactive power from these sources in contingency situations. In response, EPE and the National System Operator (ONS) developed a new planning database, released in August 2025, with greater adherence to the real-world behavior of the… electrical network.
Location signaling, tariffs, and aging infrastructure.
The growth of renewable energy generation in the Northeast tends to intensify the locational signal in electricity tariffs. power transmissionThe PDE estimates that the Transmission System Usage Tariff (TUST) will be higher in areas with greater network utilization, especially in the North and Northeast submarkets.
In addition to expansion, the plan draws attention to the aging of existing assets. EPE estimates R$ 39,8 billion in potential investments in substations, associated with assets that have already exceeded their regulatory useful life by 2025. Maintaining the reliability of the electrical grid requires continuous investment in modernization and equipment replacement.
What the data reveals about the future of energy transmission in Brazil.
The data presented by EPE shows that connection requests of data centers e hydrogen, which total 54,2 GW by 2038, put the power transmission at the heart of the electricity sector’s decision-making. The Brazilian electricity grid will need to grow in scale, technology, and resilience to sustain this new cycle of expansion.
At the same time, the country has unique conditions to transform this challenge into an opportunity, consolidating itself as a benchmark in clean energy, the digital economy, and the energy transition. The balance between planning, investment, and systemic security will be crucial for the future of the electricity sector and for Brazil’s competitiveness in the coming decades.
