Map of the Hydrogen Valley and planned green hydrogen projects designated as Strategic Integrated Projects (SIPs) by the South African government; hydrogen production capacity by 2050 in parentheses.Source: data from DTIC 2022, IEA 2022c
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South Africa’s Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) is leading the design of a green hydrogen production zone stretching from Saldanha on the west coast to Namakwa, 444km to the north east. Using renewable-powered desalination to extract water from the Atlantic Ocean, the plan is to produce green hydrogen through electrolysis and to convert it into ammonia for local use and global export by 2029.
The project was approved in May 2024, and the CSIR was appointed in June 2025 to manage its strategic master plan. The CSIR’s techno-economic modelling, to be published soon, outlines how the proposed 1-gigawatt electrolyser module could produce roughly 72,000–88,000 tonnes of green hydrogen a year using renewable-powered desalination. Using sector-standard estimates from the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the US Department of Energy, this output could avoid around 0.7 million tonnes of CO₂ annually if it replaces hydrogen from fossil fuels.
This approach, backed by the country’s Hydrogen Society Roadmap, is central to the Just Energy Transition Investment Plan, a five year plan that supports South Africa’s goal of achieving a low carbon economy and a climate resilient society.
Although green hydrogen is being positioned as a future-proof industrial strategy, benefits such as the predicted creation of up to 360,000 jobs by 2050, depend on major investments and long-term implementation.
What Will It Take to Get Off the Ground?
Bertha Dlamini, founding president of the African Women in Energy and Power.Credit: Bertha Dlamini
Bertha Dlamini is founding president of the African Women in Energy and Power (AWEaP), a non-profit which aims to accelerate African women entrepreneurs’ participation in the power and energy sectors. She welcomes the vision but stresses the practical groundwork still missing.
“Green hydrogen is not the answer for our immediate electricity shortages,” she says. “Its value lies in decarbonising hard-to-abate sectors – such as transport, iron and steel production, cement manufacturing and the chemical industries – and future-proofing our economy as global demand scales.”
She says the major hurdles include infrastructure bottlenecks, especially in Saldanha, where grid access and logistics remain constrained; regulatory uncertainty; high capital costs; and the need for technology to ensure that seawater desalination is both energy-efficient and environmentally safe.
On desalination, Dlamini is optimistic. “The energy cost is less than 1% of the total hydrogen production cost, and wind and solar can power it entirely. It’s a scalable model already seen in Namibia.”
Is It Overhyped? Experts Say: Proceed With Caution
For Janet Cherry, a development scholar at Nelson Mandela University, the question isn’t whether the tech can work — but who it works for.
“It’s not a silver bullet,” she says. “It won’t provide cheap energy to people in rural areas or informal settlements.”
Cherry’s concerns centre on equity and inclusion. She warns that foreign-funded hydrogen megaprojects could repeat the extractive model seen across Africa, exporting profits and leaving communities with few benefits.
“There is little evidence there will be integration into local value chains,” she says. “We’ve seen in similar projects that jobs created are limited, and without transparency, communities may be displaced or sidelined.”
Cherry studied Hive Energy’s hydrogen plant in the Coega Industrial Zone on the southern Cape coast, where environmental concerns about the release of highly saline water from the plant persist. Even with plans to minimise waste, local residents remain wary.
Show Us the Money: Has Funding Been Declared?
The SA-H2 Fund, backed by the Industrial Development Corporation (IDC), the Development Bank of South Africa (DBSA), and international donors, has committed early capital to green hydrogen pilots. A €50 million pledge from the Netherlands and funding from Germany’s KfW promotional bank support hydrogen-linked infrastructure.
The project’s future hinges on whether public-private partnerships, sovereign guarantees, and green infrastructure budgets can align to de-risk investment. No direct funding has been declared yet for area where the green hydrogen plant will be built.
Lessons from Namibia and Nigeria
Namibia and Nigeria launched hydrogen initiatives in 2023, promising job creation and clean growth, but rollout has been slow and local benefits have been limited.
“We must get the groundwork right,” says Dlamini. “That means infrastructure, skills development, and inclusive policy frameworks.”
“The window to lead is closing fast. If South Africa gets it right, it could become a continental hub for green fuel. If not, it risks falling into a familiar pattern: ambition on paper, but exclusion in practice,” Cherry says.
