Green hydrogen is not produced in Mexico, where most H2 is made from polluting fossil fuels for the country’s vast refining sector.
But according to Mexico’s hydrogen trade body, Asociación Mexicana de Hidrógeno (AMH) there are at least 15 projects under development in the Latin American country, worth a total capex investment of $20bn — before the government has put in place any subsidies or regulatory regime to speak of.
Hydrogen Insight estimates that $20bn would facilitate nearly 7GW of green hydrogen projects, however there are few details available about large-scale projects in the country.
Last year, Mexico’s president Andrés Manuel López Obrador said that an unnamed fund from Denmark — later revealed to be Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners — will put $10bn towards a green hydrogen project in the southern Mexican state of Oaxaca, to replace the use of fossil fuels in shipping.
French developer HDF has previously said that it plans to invest $2.5bn to build seven H2 projects in Mexico between 2024 and 2030.
Spain’s Dhamma envisages producing nearly 13,000 tonnes of hydrogen per year from 120 MW of solar power (implying around 60MW of electrolysis capacity) in Guanajuato state, while Germany’s Hy2gen is reportedly working on a 200MW hydrogen-to-ammonia plant in Campeche, and Dutch fertiliser firm Tarafert is planning 343MW of electrolyser capacity in three tranches, starting with 69MW in 2025.
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Mexico has significant potential for green hydrogen production, having both high levels of solar irradiation (up to 8.06kWh per square metre, according to the Global Solar Atlas) and one of the windiest spots on Earth in its south (with average wind speeds of almost 12 metres per second), according to the Global Wind Atlas.
The country’s potential as a green hydrogen producer is further enhanced by its proximity to the US market, where green H2 is likely to be in high demand. In fact, in California, which shares a border with Mexico, there has recently been a hydrogen shortage in the transport sector.
AMH believes that the biggest market opportunity in Mexico is in heavy-duty transport — despite the country’s huge petrochemicals sector and steel production capacity.
“There is a lot of potential, especially in this first stage of the hydrogen industry in Mexico,” Israel Hurtado, founder of the AMH told Mexican business daily El Financiero. “We see it more in the long-distance heavy transport of goods, in tractor-trailers, especially because with hydrogen they need fewer refills [compared to] electromobility… with lithium battery, gasoline or diesel.”
Jorge Machuca, director of Cummins’ engine business in Latin America, told the newspaper that he would not “rule out” interest in hydrogen-powered internal combustion engines (H2-ICE) in Mexico from fleet operators in Mexico as soon as 2027, especially those who operate over the border with the US.
“For the Mexican market, whether Cummins makes this type of vehicle available will depend on the availability of energy,” Machuca said. “And even if [green] hydrogen were available in Mexico, the price of hydrogen will have a lot to do with it.”
The US engineering firm is developing both fuel cells and hydrogen internal combustion engines for heavy trucking, with the aim of full production by 2027.
The company has previously told Hydrogen Insight that it expects trucks fitted with H2-ICE to be 50% more expensive to operate than diesel equivalents, but that the higher operating cost would be offset by the lower capex investment in new trucks and costs for staff training.
